Your thinking is sound on this. I would fully expect Roberts, when faced with RVW getting tossed, doing everything he can to form a legal pretzel weave to have it both ways as you suggest. I agree even that would be significant win but far short of what was hoped for when the leak hit.
Right - it definitely seemed like from the oral arguments there were 6 votes to uphold the laws in question...unclear how many votes that there could be to overturn Roe and Casey.