I could say the reverse is true also. Almost two weeks of new offensive and the Russians have advanced a few kilometers at a very heavy cost. Most of their gains were in a pocket of the Luhansk oblast east of Izyum between two rivers that the Ukrainians had lightly defended. Now they're fighting against multiple lines of defense in depth in Donetsk.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians stopped conscription a few days ago because they had enough volunteers, and many of the troops who joined after the war started should be trained and equipped now. They also claim to be advancing toward Kherson.
Can the Russians win by cutting off the Donetsk salient and keeping Ukraine from cutting the land bridge to Crimea? Maybe, but it's too early to tell.
I have no idea why any conservative would believe anything coming from this administration.
Think about it -- Russia has total control over the air and Black Sea. If the Russians wanted to, they could wipe any city in Ukraine in a "shock and awe" campaign like we've done many times. There isn't a thing Ukraine could do to stop that if Russia went that route.
The Russians will control all of Donbass and, probably, the entire coastline by the time this all done.