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To: Hojczyk
While this is my personal opinion and not investment advice I agree with Elon Musk. If his robot becomes capable of household tasks, in an aging population, he will probably sell 150,000,000 million of these things in the next 10 years. If they sell for 20k each that's 3 trillion in sales over 10 years. At a 5x multiple price to sales ratio and backend loading of the sales to the last few years of the 10 year period Tesla will 5X in 10 years on Robots alone. That works out to a 17% compounded return at the end of 10 years.

I believe that 150Mil is just US sales. World-wide sales would be much higher. This doesn't even include the fact that Tesla is probably one of the top AI companies in the world. It also doesn't include that there are still car sales to include. It also doesn't include industrial and agricultural use of the robots I am just considering individual household use.

For those who are stuck in mutual funds in their retirement account due to the type of plan you have you can get some Tesla exposure through Baron Partners Fund Retail Shares (BPTRX). They have 41% of their holdings in Tesla stock. They also have 4% in SpaceEx so you get a two-fer on Elon Musk.

I'm a big fan of what Mr. Musk is accomplishing. Again not investment advice just throwing my own back of the envelopment analysis for your enjoyment.

31 posted on 04/21/2022 6:53:45 PM PDT by stig
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To: stig

Retired here and 20 thousand is out of reach in my neighborhood. Most elderly are barley getting by. Not all had golden parachutes when they retired. Many Companies discontinued offering pensions.
My brother in law was one of them. He is 68 and gets 1400 on Social Security and lives in his parents old home (owned part by his sister, him and my hubby cashed out). Brother in law could not even pay 19,000 towards a buy out when he retired at 63 for my husbands share of the house.

These Robots would be of course driven towards the wealthy.

As always.


44 posted on 04/21/2022 7:51:34 PM PDT by winterystorm
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