Posted on 04/18/2022 1:38:09 PM PDT by BeauBo
"We can now say that Russian forces have started the battle of the Donbas, for which they have long prepared," he said in a video address.
Ukraine's presidential chief of staff said that "the second phase of the war has started," referring to Russia's new assault...
"This morning, along almost the entire front line of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, the occupiers attempted to break through our defences," Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said in televised comments.
"They began their attempt to start the active phase this morning," he said.
(Excerpt) Read more at rte.ie ...
Reports of heavy artillery prep across multiple targets, and a lot of vehicles moving.
The terrain in the Donbass is similar to nearby Kursk, over the border in Russia, where the biggest tank battle of WWII occurred.
Ukraine should avoid confronting the Russians in the open, as they don’t have the manpower or materiel for that kind of fight. They should draw the Russians into traps, and kill zones (which, given the abysmal performance of the Russian military thus far, should not be that difficult).
Russia invaded a smaller, weaker country that posed no real threat to Russia; but it has natural resources that Russia very much wants.
Kursk 2022 style?
One report said that the US estimated that 76 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups had been assembled for the Eastern Front offensive.
Mariupol is wrapping up, and that may have been a condition for the launching of the Donbas Operation.
NATO in Ukraine would have put itself at the same spot the Germans were in late 1942 / early 1943.
And the only explanation for the Russian invasion of Ukraine from the MSM is ridiculous propaganda that "Putin is crazy."
Hope they just get it over with, so we can all be friends again. Maybe the Ruskis will help us get Trump elected again.
Russian forces had been inching forward over the last few days.
It’s show time now though. This will be a big test.
As you point out terrain (and the length of supply lines) favors Russia more than the Battle of Kyiv.
Talk of joining NATO is very much a real threat.
That said, I think this whole thing could have been avoided.
The countryside is largely agricultural fields, lined with trees to prevent wind erosion. Good places to lay in wait with views of large open areas. Fields about 300-500 yards wide. Put two or three teams in the woodline and use NLAWs against vehicles crossing the field. One NLAW or maybe two for each team. Engage and then pull back.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
“Talk of joining NATO is very much a real threat.”
If NATO had seriously wanted Ukraine to become a member it would have happened years ago. The Russians are not stupid, and they knew that. Hell, Russia already has FIVE NATO countries on its borders: Poland; Lithuania; Latvia: Estonia; Norway. Poland and Lithuania both border Russian Kaliningrad. But what Ukraine has, that those five countries don’t have in comparison, are a hell of a lot of natural resources, including substantial fossil fuel deposits in Donbas. Russia wants no local competitors to its energy “empire.”
“Kursk 2022 style?”
No, I don’t think so. Ukraine is not that stupid.
“NATO in Ukraine would have put itself at the same spot the Germans were in late 1942 / early 1943.”
In other words, Hitler’s brain fart codenamed Fall Blau, which set the stage for the collapse of the German invasion of the USSR. His generals argued against it, but the failed postcard illustrator thought he knew more than they did.
Heavy rain squaws moving north east from Mariupol toward Donetsk today.
April 16th Summary:
Typical day with positional fighting on frontlines in terms of fighting, fighting at Izyum.
Key area: Izyum bridgehead. New focus area will be Donbass, Izyum, Mariupol, Kherson.
1. Kharkiv: positional fighting, heavy shelling by Russian troops.
2. Izyum bridgehead: Russian 4TD and 3 mechanized division expanded bridgehead in the west to village of Andriyivka and in the south to village of Dovgenke - both villages are in Russian control. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk. New reinforcement on the bridgehead - 106 Airborne Division. There are no signs of 6TB/47TD that originally captured bridgehead.
3. Russian attacks on Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk, fighting on outskirts of towns. Russian troops captured majority of Rubizhne. Popasna is about 70-75% captured by Russian troops, they control center of the town. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna.
4. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka - very active shelling with Russian artillery of all calibers including 203 mm guns. Maryinka is only 25% captured by Russian troops.
5. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands. Dangerous Russian attack on village of Velyka Novosilka to the east of Vugledar.
6. Mariupol: continuous fighting, heavy shelling by Russian troops using 240-mm mortars, MLRS, FAB-3000 bombs, Russian troops captured all of the sea port.
7. There is large gap between Volnovakha and Zaporizhya thinly defended by Ukrainian forces, Russian forces don’t have enough resources to exploit it. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and Orikhiv. Russian 19D is operating there.
8. Mykolayiv: positional fighting, shelling. 14th brigade arrived to the region. Russian troops also received reinforcement - part of 201 military camp - we estimate it’s a brigade size subunit.
“Hope they just get it over with, so we can all be friends again.”
It can end tomorrow if Putin called off his invasion. But, you and I both know he won’t do that; he’s gone too far now, and has to save face.
It’s really a shame all this happened, as I think Russia and the West could have had good relations. Both Russia and the West screwed the pooch in that regard.
I thought they would leave it to the end of the month.
There was a bunch of bad weather lately that could not have helped the rasputitsa situation.
It’s good for an excuse. A lot more valid than what we did to Libya.
I do agree it’s a power play. I figured they just wanted the two eastern areas that are largely Russian peoples. They know they can’t hold all of the Ukraine, so I have no idea what the endgame is with that.
That, I think, is the predominant reason, for the war.
Ukraine was going to develop the recently discovered, huge gas fields and sell to Europe.
This would have been an economic boon to Ukraine and a direct threat to Russia's monopoly.
The Ukrainians do have the manpower. What they lack is air support and artillery.
“It’s good for an excuse. A lot more valid than what we did to Libya.”
Well, we didn’t invade Libya. But, what we did do there was bad enough: the imbecilic amateurs of the Obama-Biden administration caused irreparable geopolitical harm, and not just in North Africa.
Conjures images of Hannibal and Cannae.
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