“you think Russia — historically a bully — should be able to wield its chest-thumping without consequence,”
The 64k question is, do we have the will to make them feel consequences - total war?
Consequences can be applied without resorting to total war. But, if there were to be total war, then Russia would have made the decision to go that route, and it's something they would have done anyway. Russia is an insecure and paranoid nation, and always has been. It's not surprising, given that its people have been oppressed and under the thumb of tyrants for millenia.