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Nate Silver Redistricting Analysis: Democrats poised to INCREASE their House majority in November
Fivethirtyeight ^ | April 13, 2022 | Fivethirtyeight Elections Analysis by Nate Silver

Posted on 04/13/2022 8:12:46 AM PDT by nwrep

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To: Jim Noble

What’s your prediction if we continue on this path of high inflation, empty shelves, high gas, etc?


41 posted on 04/13/2022 8:33:59 AM PDT by mikelets456
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To: All

Nate isn’t exactly known to make accurate predictions. He might end up being right but that would just be pure luck


42 posted on 04/13/2022 8:34:37 AM PDT by escapefromboston (Free Chauvin)
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To: nwrep

Ignore this partisan propagandist and consider real world results during the past year. This is pure BS to to give rats hope so they cough up campaign contributions. Few want to flush good money away on a losing effort.


43 posted on 04/13/2022 8:34:53 AM PDT by BiglyCommentary
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To: Sirius Lee

I’m afraid that is correct. Government moves in only one direction - it expands - and winning a seat in congress is like winning the lotto. Why spoil a good deal by making waves?


44 posted on 04/13/2022 8:35:06 AM PDT by skeeter
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To: nwrep

Pelosi must be defeated at any cost.


45 posted on 04/13/2022 8:35:15 AM PDT by bk1000 (Banned from Breitbart)
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To: nwrep

Surprise, surprise...the courts have repeatedly sided with the Dems on redistricting issues.


46 posted on 04/13/2022 8:35:56 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Liberty is an antecedent of government, not a benefit from government” ~ Clarence Thomas)
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To: nwrep

One man in a sea of predictors. but he did it before...

I think he is getting paid now to stave off all the apathy and negativity/fatalism this soon.

THEY need a narrative since they have - billions - to steal this cycle to and little evidence that the Republicrats will do anything to thwart those plans. R’Pukes like McConnell actually like being in the minority-opposition side. You still get to make your millions (and millions) from graft and can cry about MAGA so you get to party with the Elites as well. No responsibility for anything. Until the pitchforks and torches phase.


47 posted on 04/13/2022 8:37:19 AM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: nwrep

Awwww, throwing a silver lining to his favorite Party. How Quaint!


48 posted on 04/13/2022 8:38:50 AM PDT by Harpotoo (Being a socialist is a lot easier than having to WORK like the rest of US:-))
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To: nwrep; All

I want the Repukes to take the house but I’d very much love for a good number of Repuke Senators to get cheated out of office a week after the election


49 posted on 04/13/2022 8:38:59 AM PDT by wiseprince (Me,)
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To: skeeter

I figured out it was the uniparty during Dubya’s first term. That is when I left the republican party.

As far as I’m concerned, the two parties are playing “good cop, bad cop” with us. Which one you consider the “good cop” depends on your political beliefs.

The proof: McCain and Romney as their party’s nominees. Both, at the time, were the equivalent of a democrat in republican clothes. Yet they were the party’s nominees. That can’t be taken at face value - or seriously.

That’s why both parties hated Trump and I learned to love him. And my credentials are sealed by me being temp banned here twice in 2016 for bad mouthing Trump. Then he became president and his first “accomplishment” was outing a LOT of republican deep staters.

i.e. Don’t look to the Republican party to resolve our country’s issues. It is a false hope.


50 posted on 04/13/2022 8:40:27 AM PDT by cuban leaf (My prediction: Harris is Spiro Agnew. We'll soon see who becomes Gerald Ford, and our next prez.)
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To: nwrep

He’s got a point. Dems do net a few seats. But in the current environment of maybe R+4 they will still retake the House. The question is what will happen later in the decade when the next Blue Wave (!!!) happens.


51 posted on 04/13/2022 8:41:41 AM PDT by Republicans 2016 2020
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To: nwrep
THIS IS NOT NATE SILVER'S ANALYSIS
This is nwrep, based on date from Nate Silver that nwrep has completely, absurdly misunderstood.
Nate Silver is not predicting the 2022 election. He is analyzing how many House seats NATURALLY LEAN to the Democrats, relative to the nation as a whole, versus how many lean to the Republicans. According to Silver's analysisIF, and only if, just as many people vote for Democrats as did in 2020, the Democrats can grow their lead in the House.
52 posted on 04/13/2022 8:42:54 AM PDT by dangus
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To: Signalman

Listen to Richard BAris, who has NO respect for this clown. Silver had projected Hillary to win at 70 percent until 8:30 election night 2016.


53 posted on 04/13/2022 8:44:12 AM PDT by laconic
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To: nwrep

The danger with gerrymandering in a wave election is that it can actually backfire. It can end up disproportionately losing more districts than if there was no gerrymandering at all.


54 posted on 04/13/2022 8:45:52 AM PDT by Gideon7
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To: Deo volente
Ballot Drop-off Videos (Georgia 2020)
55 posted on 04/13/2022 8:48:46 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
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To: nwrep

By the way the Dems and GOP are acting, they believe that too.


56 posted on 04/13/2022 8:49:31 AM PDT by redgolum (If this is civilization, I will be the barbarian. )
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To: nwrep
I predict we will get very small majorities in the House and Senate - four reasons:

(1) Covid-19 has killed more elderly white Republicans than Democrats.

(2) About 750,000 new foreign born voters are naturalized each year. They will vote 60%-70% Democrat.

(3) About 4 million new 18 year old voters each year. They are close to 50-50 white-non-white. A majority of those new voters will vote Democrat.

(4) Many states have automatic mail-out ballots now. The GOP has done nothing consequential to prevent voter fraud. High turn out - even completely honest turn out - will favor the Democrats.

Bottom Line - there are more Democrats than Republicans in the USA. The GOP will make small gains with non-white voters. We will win very small majorities in the House and Senate.

57 posted on 04/13/2022 8:50:14 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: ChuckHam

Silver is a fraud. Predicted 100% Clinton victory over Trump.


58 posted on 04/13/2022 8:50:42 AM PDT by pacificus
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To: nwrep

This is either TWO things: but could be sorta both.

1. This is copium for the demonrats

2. This is priming the pump for more blatant election fraud


59 posted on 04/13/2022 8:51:27 AM PDT by GraceG ("If I post an AWESOME MEME, STEAL IT! JUST RE-POST IT IN TWO PLACES PLEASE")
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To: brownsfan
"Providing cover for massive vote fraud."

Do you believe the 2020 election was stolen?

If you do believe the 2020 election was stolen what measures have been taken to ensure the integrity of the next election?

If you believe the 2020 election was stolen and little or nothing has been done to ensure the integrity of the next election, why would anyone believe the results of the next election will be legitimate?

60 posted on 04/13/2022 8:51:47 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
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