“Ultimate victory will be where Putin ends up Russifying Donbas. I think it’s more likely that he’ll withdraw troops in shame.”
He will give the Russian militias in Donbas everything they want.
And those militias will finish off all Ukrainian loyalists.
Whether good or bad.
Not that simple. Ukrianians may counterattack if their upcoming offensive in Donbas fails. We saw what happened in Kyiv. We may see the same in Donbas if Russia has not adjusted their tactics. But my guess is that they'll adjust like they usually do.