It’s also a mistake to treat global affairs such as war the same as science.
***That’s basically the same thing I said, “Oh well, with so many parameters it is difficult to even come up with predictable outcomes.”
You are welcome to have your opinions, be they right or wrong, but
***And so are you. But your anti-scientific viewpoint pops up when you are presented with the obvious.
to have the attitude that they are in some way related to scientific theory is hubris.
***They ARE related to scientific theory in multitudes of ways. It’s just that there are too many parameters to gather and observe, much the same way of the butterfly effect or econometric models or stock market trend forecasting or global climate change models. That’s why I said “Oh well, with so many parameters it is difficult to even come up with predictable outcomes.”
It’s also why I pulled back another 10,000 feet to use POTO, Pointing Out The Obvious”, to gather a couple of salients & say “ My prediction would be: If Finland joins NATO, Russia will not invade. Kind of obvious, I know. “
Hence, it is using scientific approaches similar to the backward propagation of errors algorithm to update the network weights on stock market indices that brings us to the comment “But working backwards from that, if Ukraine had joined NATO, Vlad wouldn’t have invaded. “
And then it brings into focus the salient which wasn’t quite so visible before leading to the comment “ So... why didn’t they? The answer appears to be: It’s complicated. Not so complicated any more, is it?” But you label this as hubris. I think it’s more that you don’t like where the process led, so you downshitfed into a subtle insult. Your opinions at 40,000 feet are valid but anyone else going down to 38,000 feet is engaging in hubris.
And you’re putting out nonsense and looking for an argument.
When you argue with a fool long enough it becomes harder to see which is the fool. I believe I’ve already told you that I can suffer fools for a while, as they are cheap entertainment.
You’re no longer entertaining.