You did not read your studies carefully.
Mutation effects described to statistically increase the successful (numerous) variants over unsuccessful are always laid out with the key preface you seem to have missed — “over the long term.” A 50% population killing mutation will indeed reduce virion count and thus be labelled unsuccessful, because over the long term it will have fewer hosts. This lack of success doesn’t appear until after the deed is done. Note, again, delta was deadlier than the original. Hence, a mutation that didn’t conform to this badly read theory of lesser effects.
As for the 85+ numbers, give me a moment, I saw this recently:
Voila — https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12879-021-06450-8 recent report out of China (Aug 2021), outlining original strain numbers. Since the point is how much mutation is needed to get to 50%, this was the study I recalled. It is original strain and that’s the baseline of mutation. It was in Wuhan, of course, with age 70+ CFR of 28.6%. The details showed a tendency for worse older, also of course. Eyeballed a graph as I recall. 85+ 35ish%. Why would it not?
Look, first of all everyone can walk around and think unicorns exist beneath rainbows. But for God’s sake be consistent. Why hunt down studies you aren’t going to understand? Just ignore anything that suggests anyone has died of Covid or ever will die of it. You’ll be happier. Crazys are often happy.
You don’t get it. At all.
In the IMMEDIATE term, any given mutation in a virus is far more likely to be less dangerous. Not guaranteed, just far more likely. Any fool can figure out that’s why we still have a human race.
Viruses like Ebola and Marburg are the exception, not the rule.
And LOL OMG you still don’t know the difference between CASE fatality rate and INFECTION fatality rate.
CASES are symptomatic, and in the study YOU REFERENCE were ALREADY HOSPITALIZED when they were enrolled. - “...we enrolled consecutively hospitalized patients over 70 yr with COVID-19 between January 20 and February 15, 2020”
Why don’t you “recall” the fatality rate for patients on ventilators for 30 days and then assume that applies to everyone who isn’t even symptomatic? You could get a much scarier number that way.