[Zhang Fei]

[It might be the sanctions, it might be the domestic political opposition in Belarus, it might be an updated assessment of the military situation, or the combination. Lukashenko has been running Belarus for over 30 years, and his first priority is likely Lukashenko.]

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The underlying assumption here is that Lukashenko is in charge of the organs of state security in Belarus. If this is in fact him at the steering wheel, it’s not the situation I expected. I thought Putin owned the securitate in Belarus, and Lukashenko was his marionette. If Lukashenko is in fact Belarus’s actual ruler rather than a front for Putin, it’s possible that someone in Lukashenko’s inner circle could turf him and further distance Belarus from Putin. (Or, he could turf Lukashenko and drive the nation further into Putin’s arms). The question is the extent to which organized opposition, within and without Lukashenko’s inner circle, exists in Belarus and whether it has reached the critical mass necessary to challenge Lukashenko with any chance of winning.

[BeauBo]

“I thought Putin owned the securitate in Belarus, and Lukashenko was his marionette.”

Could be by now, but Lukashenko was in charge in Belarus about five years before Putin came to power in Russia, so he is something of his own man.

The Belarussian Securitate may have the option to back away from an impending disaster, that the Russians don’t, because they have an alternative to Putin to fall back on, in Lukashenko.

Perhaps Intelligence or Diplomatic channels, or Belarus’ own Military, are bringing them information of a likely escalation or collapse, that would take Belarus with it, if they don’t get out of the line of fire. Could be some insider selling, or rats fleeing a sinking ship.

Maybe it is the Belarussian Securitate prioritizing their own post-war survival, rather than (or in collaboration with) Lukashenko.