Could be big, probably won’t amount to much because of how inept the Maryland republican party is.
Maryland, outside of the B-W collar counties, is basically as red as south carolina as far as the population goes, but you’d never know that from their carefully carved house districts and just as lopsided statehouse representation.
Maryland’s house representation is currently 7-1 D-R, but should be more like 6-2 with a competitive D district... and could be as much as a 4-4 split in a year like 2022 could shape up to be. The would-be R voters don’t get touched or engaged though, in large part because of the absurdly drawn district lines.
Still, if the north and west of the state didn’t have those little boundary fingers dipping down to DC, there is at least a one seat pickup there. If the south of the state kept to the bay coastline and not poke into the densely populared DC collar areas, another possible pickup. North and northeast of Baltimore even has promise for a Larry Hogan type moderate and that’s even before you would figure in the future state where conservative leaning voters wouldn’t keep resettling North of the Mason Dixon line to escape the Maryland government.
That is one area where the Canadian system for laying out voting districts works far better.
A note about terms
Federal riding, federal electoral district and constituency can all be used interchangeably.
When and why do the boundaries need to change?
According to the Constitution of Canada, federal electoral boundaries must be reviewed every 10 years based on the most recent census to reflect Canada’s ever changing population.
Who decides where the boundaries go?
An independent electoral boundaries commission is created for each province, for a total of 10 commissions. The commissions use demographic data from Statistics Canada and spatial data from Natural Resources Canada to determine if the boundaries need to be changed.
What about the Territories?
Due to their limited population size and the Electoral Boundaries Readjustment Act, the territories are each allocated only one federal electoral district, which is not reviewed.
Who is a part of a federal electoral boundaries commission?
Each commission has three key players: one judge who chairs the commission and two members appointed by the Speaker of the House of Commons (usually academics and researchers).
What criteria are used to determine the new boundaries?
The main criterion is population equality (plus or minus 25%); however, other criteria are also considered by the commission, such as:
communities of interest or identity,
historical patterns of previous boundaries, and
manageable geographic size.
Do citizens get a say?
Of course! Once the commission has prepared proposals of the revised boundaries, there are public hearings held in the affected districts for the public to participate in the
process. Members of the House of Commons can also participate in the hearings.
Does Elections Canada decide where the boundaries go?
Elections Canada plays an impartial support role, such as providing data and assisting with mapping. It then implements the boundary decisions made by the commissions and produces new electoral district maps.
Governor Hogan and his Redistricting Commission, to their credit, presented a much fairer plan. The overwhelmingly Dhimmicrap legislature rejected it and passed a plan of their own. That’s the one that got thrown out.
It wasn’t that long ago that it was 4-4. Of course, that included RINO Connie Morella, as well as kind of squishy Republicans in one or two other districts, but it was still 4D-4R. By 2010, it was 6D-2R, then the Dhimmicrap legislature gerrymandered the state to make it 7D-1R. (Check out MD-3 and MD-2.) They rejected a plan in 2011 sponsored by the Maryland GOP and the Fannie Lou Hamer PAC, a black group, that would have created 3 minority-majority districts instead of the present 2.
This time around, Governor Hogan created a Redistricting Commission with equal D-R representation. The commission created a pretty decent, pretty fair map. The legislature threw it out and imposed their own plan instead.
Now, it’s going to have to be done yet again. I hope we can revive the commission’s plan.
I think that's Helen Bentley's old seat.
We’re talking a pick-up of one. Nothing to sneeze at, but not quite “big.”
The problem is most “Republicans” in Maryland (and there are precious few) are mostly assistant demokkkrats.
After 55 years in that hellhole, I’m finally in a freer state.