Putin May Be Losing Control of Russian Elites

Vladimir Putin is in trouble. The war he expected to last a few days is now more than three weeks old and shows no signs of imminent victory being achieved. His economy is on life support, his subjects are restless, with some choosing open rebellion — despite the consequences.

So Putin did what any politician in trouble would do: He appealed directly to the Russian people in a nationwide address.

But this wasn’t the kind of speech “Uncle Joe” Biden would give. Joseph Stalin would have been very comfortable giving the speech Putin gave on Wednesday evening.

“The Russian people will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors and simply spit them out like a fly that accidentally flew into their mouths,” Putin said Wednesday, according to NBC. “I am convinced that such a natural and necessary self-purification of society will only strengthen our country, our solidarity, cohesion, and readiness to respond to any challenges.”

It was the latest speech to surprise and alarm many who study Putin. He has adopted what they say is an emotional, ranting tone since Russia invaded Ukraine three weeks ago, a departure from the calculating persona of a former KGB officer.
“He’s clearly angry, emotional and feels the need to speak in this very aggressive tone,” said John Lough, an associate fellow at London’s Chatham House think tank.
Lough said the speech was clearly aimed at Russia’s elites, some of whom he believes are privately dismayed about the failure of the war and the economic backlash it has inflicted at home.

“Self-purification” has an ominous sound to it. And it’s a clear warning that no one — no matter how rich or well connected — is above being “purified.”

IN HIS SPEECH,

Putin touched on now-common themes, comparing the West to Nazi Germany and alleging, against all evidence, that Ukraine has been committing genocide against ethnic Russians. But he adopted even more hard-line rhetoric when he turned his attention to Russians themselves, whom he has subjected to a sweeping crackdown on anti-war dissent in recent weeks.

There is now an exodus underway in Russia. It’s happening under the radar but the brain drain is especially noticeable and is being felt in the highest government circles.

The Kremlin said Thursday that it was those people who were showing themselves to be “traitors.”
“They vanish from our lives,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to Reuters. “Some people are leaving their posts. Some are leaving their active work life. Some leave the country and move to other countries. That is how this cleansing happens.

Putin was saying to the elites: “Don’t think about having second thoughts. We’re all in this together, and if I go down, you go down.”

Agreed. Putin is gonna lose! Annnnyyy day now...

The west has bungled this BIG time. First by refusing to show strength with Ukraine while simultaneously goading Putin into knocking the chip off of Biden’s shoulder - so he did, all with the support of the NeoCons and world builders and now they intentionally prolong the war by giving Ukraine enough weapons to do some damage but not overwhelmingly enough to actually push back on the Russian forces.

Meanwhile we pull all economic and diplomatic support so Putin has no position to fall back on and finishing taking Ukraine is the only path forward or complete loss.

And then Clinton and Bush (and Obmma would’ve been there) have the unmitigated GALL to “pray loudly in public” about how they support Ukraine when they actively WANTED this conflict.

It’s all BS!

You can consider the possibility that security apparatus would turn on him. His misadventure in Ukraine could hurt their interest, too. They are also corrupt and used to line their pockets. If this arrangement is disrupted, they could rethink their loyalty to Putin.

He should keep on purging anybody suspicious including those in security services.

To survive, he needs some luck in addition to whatever abilities he has. Kim Il-sung had a lucky break thanks to Hungarian Uprising. At the time Soviets with the approval of Mao Zedong decided to remove Kim. However, the uprising made them rethink their plan because they feared they may not control the aftermath of Kim's ouster, leading to similar uprising against N. Korean communist regime.

Putin could survive but he has a lot of work to do and needs a lucky break or two. On the other hand, the longer he survives, the worse-off Russia will become.

[To survive, he needs some luck in addition to whatever abilities he has. Kim Il-sung had a lucky break thanks to Hungarian Uprising. At the time Soviets with the approval of Mao Zedong decided to remove Kim. However, the uprising made them rethink their plan because they feared they may not control the aftermath of Kim’s ouster, leading to similar uprising against N. Korean communist regime.]

I’m sure they could have removed Kim if they had invaded. Without an invasion? I’m skeptical. You don’t manage to hand your throne to your heirs if you don’t have the security apparatus locked up tight.

Even in an era of hereditary monarchy, when Alexander died, his family was butchered. In the Orient, the Ming Dynasty’s founder’s grandson and heir, who actually managed to assume the throne, was eventually killed by one of his sons.

Kim was chosen for his pliability, but that was presumably just a pose. In retrospect, he was obviously a canny operator in his own right, unlike his Mongol counterpart, who was killed by Stalin.

Soviets and Chinese are plotting a coup. They were nurturing Kim’s opponent, whipping anti-Stalinist propaganda out of Soviet embassy. I even heard his assassination plan was ready.

Kim is a canny operator but it is not enough. Without Hungarian Uprising, he could have been gone now.

As for passing throne to his son, I agree that he set up everything perfectly, including removing any contender to the throne, his younger sons, before his eldest son took over. However, Kim himself had a lucky break. He was not in full control of elites. Many of them had close ties to Soviets and Chinese.

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