Vlad So Mad
Posted on 03/17/2022 9:52:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
[1. It is. Except Russia is not sending her best soldiers to Ukraine, most of them are recently trained conscripts.
2. Don’t expect instant victory in a war of attrition. Russia still has dangerous weapons up her sleeve she has not used - For example, CHEMICAL WEAPONS.
3. It might take much longer than expected, but unless there is mutiny and a coup in the Kremlin, the fall of Ukraine will only be a matter of time.
NOTE REGARDING #3: This remark should not be taken as my siding with Russia, it’s just a recognition of what is perceive to be real. I would be ecstatic if Putin were to give up and withdraw and am cheering Ukraine’s brave fighters on.
Prove me wrong.]
The Donbass was where the Ukrainian army learned how to fight. It was also the point that the Ukrainian government got off its butt and starting buying weaponry pell-mell. And from the looks of the Ukrainian resistance, they’ve been doing plenty of realistic training using that equipment.
At best, Putin was expecting an Anschluss, with Russian-flag waving Ukrainians lining the route of approach. At worst, he thought he’d get a replay of Crimea, where bought-off Ukrainian generals let the Russians take over without resistance. Instead, he got a large scale version of the battles that have been raging over the Donbass since 2014.
Re chemical weapons or nukes - I think he would be putting his life in danger from his inner circle if he gave the order. It would turn Russia into North Korea, but worse. He will have burned every economic bridge connecting Russia to the West, and through their sanctions on flouters, to any country, including China and India, that might try to evade those sanctions.
Yep. The airborne troops were supposed to capture airports. They were supposed to use that as launchpads to seize cities. A form of blitzkrieg. Obviously Ukraine saw it coming so they were prepared for it. The Russians gave Ukrianians too much time to prepare their defenses. So shock and awe wasn't a factor here.
I do not buy into the need for the use of the word Kremlin
every time they talk about Russia.
It hearkens back to the days of the USSR, and is uncalled for.
I am going to make a guess and say the Chinese military in a real battle will not fare much better than the Russians did here. They have a lot of military gadgets because they are a manufacturing nation after all, and they have a lot of ‘disposable units’ aka foot soldiers aka canon fodder , but battle tested they are not. Take away their nukes and China is likely as much a paper dragon as Russia is a paper bear.
Could a ragtag collection of thirteen colonies beat the British Empire? Sort of, if they stick together and make things tougher on the big bad bully than he cares to put up with.
In WWI, the Russian army was known as the “Steamroller “. But they had a demoralizing loss at Tannenberg and went downhill very quickly. Russian generals all want to be Zhukov, but these days mass formations of troops just waste men. The Ukrainian people are doing it right. Small hit and run operations with mobile units; no big set piece battles. Given a bit more time, Russia will be bled white.
Putin using terror tactics to dishearten the Ukrainian people is a sign of desperation.
OK.
"Russia did not send their best troops". They did. Their air force does not have second line front line combat units. Russia sent in the 4th Guard Tanks, 2nd Guard Motorized Rifles, 7th guard Mountain Air Assault, 45h Spetsnaz, none of which are second line.
"Don't expect instant victory in a war of attrition." True. The "three day" war was a U.S. and NATO DOD/Intel belief that was flat out wrong. From battle plans Ukraine forces captured, they were expecting to win in two weeks. Even with the more realistic longer time frame, Russia is falling behind.
"The fall of Ukraine is only a matter of time." Russia is making so many obviously bad mistakes it is giving Ukraine hope it can hold out. The common internet perception of "Russia Strong!" is running into the reality that 1970s Russia weapons did not fare well in the 1990s when the Gulf War was new. Tanks like the T-90 are all but T-72s with different names on all the parts and a few add ons.
The leadership is where the real problems lie. Russian forces are making so many bad mistakes it shows how they have declined since the fall of the USSR. All this is giving Ukraine hope that with foreign military weapons they can outlast the invasion.
“Russia is a big nation with substantial army. But Russia is poor, does not have the money for sophisticated equipment.”
The best quote is one from a Ukrainian general: “the Russian army is long, but it is not strong. We will eat them like salami.”
There are a lot of them, but if the Ukrainians pick their battles they can chew through them until these isn’t much left.
So is Ukraine demographically. So are many countries. Japan will have a very drastic decline.
The world came within an inch of ww3 over cuba. This is a much bigger deal. Plus the arms are more extensive and sophisticated. Hope u have a fallout shelter. Best of luck.
Seriously? Its the official seat of the Russian Government and the residence of the President of Russia. It's no different than referring to "The White House".
The question is how much pain can Russia deal with before they win? If it were some existential war that would be one thing, but this isn’t.
It was used in Tsarist days, even in internal political speech. There was once a great tension between Petersburg, the liberal “enlightened” culture of western-looking Russia, and Moscow (the Kremlin), obscurantist, mefieval autocratic Russia.
If the war turns nuclear, Russia will initiate it.
I don’t know what anyone else thinks of this, but having senior generals fighting and dying with their troops means that officers are at the front and in taking risks with those they command. America’s remote, teleconference war methodology means that American generals are more than willing to spill the blood of those they command because they face no risk themselves.
And the paleo-neocons of the Bush Crime Family and Bidenistas posting in 1 and 2 and...
I dont know about today, but the US military could depend on field officers, junior officers, and NCO’s to provide up-front leadership. The US has a very deep bench. The generals can get on with their general job.
Yeah, I explained it to you.
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