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The Stats Guy: What the numbers are telling us about Putin’s Russia
The New Daily ^ | Feb 26, 2022 | Simon Kuestenmacher

Posted on 03/17/2022 5:39:35 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican

Since Russia will be dominating the news around the world for the foreseeable future, it’s time to familiarise ourselves with a few basic demographic statistics.

This will help us interpret current affairs and might even help us understand Vladimir Putin’s game plan a little better.

*snip*

In 1999, Putin came into power and the Kremlin successfully introduced Mother and Child programs that amped up the birth rate from an incredibly low 1.157 kids per woman in 1999 to a rather impressive 1.777 in 2015.

Since then, the birth rate dropped but stabilised at around 1.5 (pretty much mirroring the European average). In, 2021 only 1.4 million babies were born in the country.

In the 1990s and early 2000s, a lot was written about the demographic decline of Russia. Putin’s success in increasing the birth rate helped to slow the population decline.

*snip*

The demographic decline wasn’t reversed permanently under Putin’s leadership, but it led to a temporary mini population boom from 2008 to 2019. This mini-boom has now ended, and Russia faces decades of slow population decline.

Not all segments of the Russian population are declining though.

The most important demographic for Putin’s plans would be men aged between 18 and 27. As of 2021, that’s the military conscription age and every Russian male must serve one year in the army.

Throughout the 2020s and 2030s, this all-important age group is only going to grow (from 7.3 million men in 2021 to 9.6 million men in 2039). From a military perspective, a demographic decline in Russia is still two decades away.

Let’s put all of this together now. Putin is thinking of himself as the leader for life which, in his case, easily translates to another 15 to 20 years. Any legacy project must be completed within this time frame.

(Excerpt) Read more at thenewdaily.com.au ...


TOPICS: Russia
KEYWORDS: demographics; russia; ukraine
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1 posted on 03/17/2022 5:39:35 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: MinorityRepublican

“Let’s put all of this together now. Putin is thinking of himself as the leader for life which, in his case, easily translates to another 15 to 20 years.”

Not if the rumors are correct. Of course, it could be a misinformation campaign, but he hasn’t looked very good lately. Hillary Clinton II?


2 posted on 03/17/2022 5:42:10 PM PDT by proxy_user
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To: MinorityRepublican

Demographic decline in Russia?

My state the last 2 years has a higher death rate than birth rate. The birth to death rate has always been the other way.

The whole globe is getting old without the proper replacement population, which is bad for labor supply issues.

It will eventually be bad for both labor & capital, but that time isn’t now.(The next 5 years aren’t a problem, but 10-15 years, who knows?)


3 posted on 03/17/2022 5:52:25 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel)
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To: MinorityRepublican

This assumes their state reported numbers are genuine.


4 posted on 03/17/2022 5:53:42 PM PDT by Poison Pill
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To: MinorityRepublican

the population decline of native born americans is even worse.


5 posted on 03/17/2022 6:00:21 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: unclebankster

people are also going to live longer, in 10-15 years people are going to start living a lot longer.


6 posted on 03/17/2022 6:01:25 PM PDT by ckilmer
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To: MinorityRepublican
Interesting article.

According to the Stats Guy, statistically it's now or never for Putin to defeat the Corruption of the West.

7 posted on 03/17/2022 6:04:13 PM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
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To: ckilmer

“people are also going to live longer, in 10-15 years people are going to start living a lot longer.”

Maybe or maybe not. You don’t have a crystal ball & neither do I.

What if we shoot off 3 or 4 thousand nukes in the next decade?

Are we living longer?


8 posted on 03/17/2022 6:10:39 PM PDT by unclebankster (Globalism is the last refuge of a scoundrel)
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To: MinorityRepublican
At last count Vlad has fathered 6 kids. Leading by example!
9 posted on 03/17/2022 6:11:14 PM PDT by immadashell (New Planned Parenthood slogan: Black Babies’ Lives Don't Matter!c)
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To: unclebankster

Maybe or maybe not. You don’t have a crystal ball & neither do I.

What if we shoot up 15 or 20 gene mod booster shots in the next decade?

What if Fauci is allowed to continue his experiment?


10 posted on 03/17/2022 6:18:04 PM PDT by algore
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To: Navy Patriot

“According to the Stats Guy, statistically it’s now or never for Putin to defeat the Corruption of the West. “

So you’re a ChiCom now?


11 posted on 03/17/2022 6:24:57 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: proxy_user

I don’t think demographics are the clock Putin is looking at.

Almost all the armaments that Putin has sent over the border date from the Soviet era. A huge amount of what Russia has today are heirlooms left over from when they were a superpower.

The 30 year old tanks and planes with spotty maintenance aren’t doing so great in combat. They will do worse when they have had another decade or two to rust.


12 posted on 03/17/2022 6:50:37 PM PDT by Renfrew
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To: Renfrew
A huge amount of what Russia has today are heirlooms left over from when they were a superpower.

I thought Russia had money so they were supposed to modernize. Maybe the Oligarchs stole the funds that were meant for modernization.

13 posted on 03/17/2022 9:57:46 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
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To: ifinnegan

So you’re a Uke Nazi now?


14 posted on 03/18/2022 8:35:41 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
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To: unclebankster

agree. nukes change all that. as do every other catastrophe. so one should give due respect to God when making predictions. He rules.

In this instance I’m just looking at the flow of research coming out of the labs and the amount of now private money flowing into longevity research. Its huge. Private money—unlike public money—is not patient money. They expect result in less than five years.

Now there is a pretty large contingent of freepers who follow this stuff.


15 posted on 03/18/2022 9:10:53 AM PDT by ckilmer
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To: Navy Patriot

“So you’re a Uke Nazi now?”

No.

You hate west like a commie in your own words.


16 posted on 03/18/2022 11:02:33 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

You lie like Biden.


17 posted on 03/18/2022 11:06:44 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
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To: MinorityRepublican
The “stats guy” is parroting state reported population and GDP measures. Poor analysis and does little to show motivation for moving on the Ukraine.

In the age of “data”, it still takes expert analysis to make the connection between data, correlation, causation, relationship, etc.

18 posted on 03/18/2022 11:12:52 AM PDT by HonkyTonkMan ( )
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To: Navy Patriot

You’re a troll.

If you seriously are supporting the ChiComs there is something wrong with you.

If you’re a troll or a mole then it’s understand above


19 posted on 03/18/2022 11:32:19 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

You’re a Uke Nazi, Globalist Warmonger, if you’re seriously supporting the Uke government or Military right now.


20 posted on 03/18/2022 11:39:55 AM PDT by Navy Patriot (Celebrate Decivilization)
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