All of my predictions have not held true. Example I proposed Putin would concentrate on the Eastern pro-Russian provinces only.
However from day one I have said and thought 200,000 troops not enough to subdue all of the Ukraine (based on my frequent reading of WW2 actions). What I don’t understand is how Putin and his top staff underestimated so badly.
They failed because they bought their own story. They thought their troops were better than they are. They also thought once they got out of the Donboss that the people would be scared or ambivalent.
Finally, this is what happens when you don’t have an experienced NCO corps. Everyone goes into their crappy army…and leaves after 18 months. The 25 year SGTs don’t exist in a meaningful way in the Russian Army.