Posted on 03/16/2022 6:55:46 AM PDT by Widget Jr
The third week of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is covered in the fog of war and that can be confusing. In this episode we investigate some of the Russian claims of victories and advances around the country to avoid falling into a cognitive bias trap. I suggest that we're living in a bubble thanks to the social media platforms that are pushing us more of what we want to see and not what we need to see.
Outline and my reactions. I am limiting this to what is not said in the U.S. news media, he covers a lot of pro-Ukranian info as well:
Reaction:
Understanding the reality on the ground is not helped by the U.S. and European news taking the Ukranain side. From the U.S. and NATO view, their operations are incompetent. They are also losing all the way to each one of their objectives and Ukraine has not stopped them.
P.S.
Those 40 mile long convoys even if dispersed are still nice targets for A-10s and F-111s if they weren't retired ten years ago.
Bttt
I find it hard to believe the Russians don’t have night vision, 80 year old technology.
who knows anything really. Like Winston Churchill said, "In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies."
Western reporting on Russia military tactics, capability and resources are laughable on their face.
Never have so many believed such insane nonsense....
Oh wait, I forgot about the Covid vaxx pushers....
Just send the Ukrainians 10 thousand Javalins and 2 million combat rifles plus a billion rounds and the Ukraines will carry on the war themselves. They have 2 million men and women ready to go. Russia can’t do much without tanks in the open plains of Ukraine.
The U.S. army prefers to move during the night to reduce vulnerability to attack and hide their movements. This requires night vision and good navigation. The Russian army is moving and fighting mostly during the day, and we can be pretty sure their GPS is not working. The lack of sufficient night vision is a reasonable explanation.
The Russians have been working on night vision systems for decades. For a while there one could buy Russian surplus night vision systems on ebay. Most of their current tanks have thermal sights of one sort or another. But for some reason their drivers don’t have such tools, and neither do their infantry have personal night vision devices. Nor have they got optics of any kind on their infantry weapons, nor night vision devices on those either.
That’s one of those areas where the Chinese could possibly help them out, as China makes these things by the million for the US market.
The Russians seems to be swapping out front line units with new ones, which means they are replacing troops with combat experience with troops having no combat experience.
As far as Kharkov goes, it's hard to tell without knowing the availability of military supplies inside the city and how porous the encirclement is.
Can the Russians grind down the Ukrainians? Probably if they have enough time, but the fighting is taking a much higher toll on the Russian army than anyone expected.
To be fair, GPS is a US military system. Their own military systems can’t be integrated with US GPS, in case the US chooses just to lock them out of it somehow. Thats also why they haven’t got anything like JDAMs or other GPS guided weapons. Their bombs are dumb, and their missiles depend on inertial navigation.
Russia supposedly has its own sort-of GPS, I don’t know if it actually works.
I bought a commercial night vision sight made in Russia at Costco thirty years ago, back when Costco used to carry cool stuff.
Kharkov does not seem to be encircled. The Russians got some columns around Kharkov, but they seem to have withrawn more than a week ago.
All of these factors match the entire history of the Russian and Soviet militaries. You could call it a tradition of professional incompetence. They only time they get good is during a long conflict when they learn the hard way and sufficient resources are allocated.
Re: eBay— that would explain why you don’t see Russian army units with night vision: the equipment is stolen and sold.
We are ONLY seeing what “they” want/ allow us to see.
Which is all Ukraine’s side of things, So we get a very warped perspective. And the narratives all support the pro Ukraine position to go along with the extremely edited videos we see.
Talk of Russian incompetence, while possible. I believe is largely overstated.
I believe it is plausible that Ukraine has some VERY well trained soldiers, possibly being supported by western spec ops, wearing Ukraine uniforms. And superlative skills and operations are spun as Russian incompetence.
I also believe that as Russia knows the war is being live streamed, they are holding back. Both due to cameras rolling and the inescapable fact they treat Ukrainians as Russian brothers/ cousins.
We buy their perceived weakness and ineptness at our peril.
And I believe the press and factions will sell the “paper tiger” point as a selling point to direct action and regime change.
I can get GPS positions, with a consumer unit with a reference signal, down to about 10 feet(circular). High-end surveying units can get even closer than that. Might want to rethink your position that the Russians don’t have anything similar to GPS. Of course this could be propaganda, note the date on the webpage:
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Rus-GBU.html
US mass media has not reported on Russian military anything in forever, before this. All this stuff comes from specialist sources, both military and private over many years, as well as any details that leak through in the MSM. Call it open source intelligence.
You do have to be a sort of military enthusiast to pick up on all this.
I served in Vietnam in ‘68. When I cam home I saw what the news media had done.
I am not buying a word of it. Everything we have been told is a lie. Every opinion being pushed by your favorite ignorant infotainer is bullsh!t.
I’ve seen a few of this guy’s video analysis. It seems more balanced and objective than what MSM is showing us.
I will say, however, the might of the Russian military has been over estimated. If nothing else, this conflict demonstrates just how advanced the US Military actually is. We are seeing what a military with lots of soldiers and expensive weapons can’t do without the technology and training to coordinate, control and command maneuvers effectively and efficiently. Russia is using ancient tactics with modern weaponry. This approach seems to almost nullify the advantage of the semi modern armament.
It makes me wonder how effective the Chinese military actually is. They tout all the high tech and expensive military equipment. But it has been supposed that they don’t have the training or integration across platforms and units that the west enjoys.
“In this episode we investigate some of the Russian claims of victories and advances around the country to avoid falling into a cognitive bias trap. I suggest that we’re living in a bubble thanks to the social media platforms that are pushing us more of what we want to see and not what we need to see.”
I don’t care for that opening statement, but since I’ve not seen his pieces prior, I may just take a look this weekend (for ‘balance’, if it proves to be so).
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