I read this earlier today. It is a sober message.
There is a lot of hope around the underdog story here. But in the end, Russia—for all their military shortcomings—will prevail.
You are correct.
The rooskies cannot go in with a shock and awe campaign if they intend to hold the country. That will alienate the population, who are in fact related by blood to them. They are going to have to go in softly, and strike where necessary, destabilize as appropriate, and keep life for the average Ukrainian as close to normal as is possible in a war zone. There will be resistance, but the rooskies will wait them out, and clear them out when appropriate for them to maintain order.