What makes you think the Ukrainians wouldn't use nuclear weapons if they had them?
The Russians would not have launched an attack if a possible response was a nuclear bomb landing on Moscow.
“What makes you think the Ukrainians wouldn’t use nuclear weapons if they had them?”
Again, World War III. Russia’s desire to control Ukraine could cause a misunderstanding (in your fictional world) and boom. It doesn’t matter who launches first.
Just like Iran and North Korea getting nukes, the odds of a series of nuclear launches increase drastically.