Good discussion.
Some points:
1) Does Putin/Russians have an off-ramp to de-escalate? Does the Ukraine and the West?
2) Assume that Putin de-escalates. When and how do economic sanctions get lifted? I ask this, as when listening to the BBC this morning, it started to sound like “sanctions creep” may enter into the picture. In other words, the West says “you have to do A/B/C/D to get sanctions lifted”. And then the West adds “and you also have to do E/F”. And then “G”. Etc.
3)I think it’s fair to say that if Putin/Russians conclude that the Russian economy will be destroyed beyond repair due to sanctions that they will attempt in some way to break sanctions. How? Who knows. But I also think it’s fair to say that Putin/Russians will not stand by and watch their economy destroyed without a response.
Anyone who knows Trump would know Trump would find a way for Putin to back out with some honor and the sense that he got something.
Of course the fact Trump would let Putin get something would get Trump labelled as a “Putin Lover”.