Russia and Iran continue to signal their commitment to deepening bilateral relations and multilateral cooperation. Iranian President-elect Masoud Pezeshkian published an article in the Tehran Times on July 12 in which Pezeshkian praised the People's Republic of China (PRC) and Russia for standing by Iran during “challenging times.”[4] Pezeshkian stated that Russia is a “valued strategic ally and neighbor” to Iran and that his government will remain committed to expanding and prioritizing bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Russia, including through BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). Pezeshkian claimed that Iran “strives for peace” between Russia and Ukraine and is prepared to support initiatives aimed at peace. Russian Ambassador to Iran Alexei Dedov stated during an interview with Russian state news agency RIA Novosti published on July 13 that Russia will pursue the same strategic course with Iran under Pezeshkian as Russia pursued under deceased Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.[5] Dedov claimed that Russia is prepared to consider peace mediation proposals from Iran, although Russian President Vladimir Putin recently rejected the possibility of any third-party mediation efforts between Russia and Ukraine.[6] Dedov stated that Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement in the “foreseeable future,” but did not provide a concrete timeline for this agreement.
A detained Russian businessman and a Russian military official who were reportedly connected to detained former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov recently died on the same day. Russian media reported that Igor Kotelnikov, a businessman accused of bribing senior officials in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), died of heart failure in a detention facility in Moscow on July 8.[7] A Russian insider source claimed that Russian Federal Security (FSB) officers were attempting to pressure Kotelnikov to testify against Ivanov and other unnamed MoD officials when Kotelnikov fell ill in solitary confinement.[8] A Wagner-affiliated milblogger claimed that Kotelnikov had agreed with FSB military counterintelligence to testify against Ivanov.[9] Russian media reported that the head of the MoD’s State Examination Department and Ivanov’s former subordinate, Magomed Khandayev, also died on July 8 in Moscow of unspecified causes.[10] Russian authorities reportedly questioned Khandayev as a witness in Ivanov’s case, but Khandayev was not facing any criminal charges of his own.[11] Russian authorities arrested Ivanov on April 24, 2024, on charges of accepting bribes, and Ivanov’s arrest was the first arrest part of an ongoing large-scale removal of Russian defense officials.[12]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-13-2024
Chinese military undertaking joint exercises near Polish border, raising concern in Poland and in NATO. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said that as part of what it called “anti-terrorism” exercises, troops will practice airborne assault, river crossing and residential combat. The 11-day drill, Eagle Assault 2024, started on Monday in the Brest region, 40 miles (64 km) from Belarus’ border with Ukraine. More than 100 Chinese troops are expected to remain in Belarus until July 19. China's exercises with Belarusian forces in Belarus are part of a pattern, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said at the summit in Washington this week. “This only confirms how authoritarian regimes are increasingly allying with each other, and how China is moving closer to NATO in Europe, Africa, the Arctic and elsewhere,” he added.
“The joint military maneuvers of China and Belarus are not directed against any country, and the Chinese authorities hope that Poland and Belarus will solve their problems through dialogue and consultations,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has close ties with Russia. In 2023, it allowed Russia to move some of its tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, and has also sought close relations with China. Belarus recently joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, established in 2001 to discuss security concerns in Central Asia.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/poland-closely-monitoring-china-belarus-military-cooperation/3273355
Separate operation
July 13 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Saturday that tensions had subsided at his country's border with Ukraine and extra troops deployed there were being sent back to their bases.
Belarus's defence ministry said late last month that it was reinforcing its border after a security incident and in response to a Ukrainian troop buildup. They said a division of multiple launch rocket systems had been deployed to test their combat readiness. Lukashenko, quoted by the official BelTA news agency during a tour of a border region, said that Belarusian intelligence had determined that Ukraine had withdrawn troops from sensitive areas. “That means that those (Ukrainian) troops which had been brought in as reinforcements are now gone,” BelTA quoted him as saying. “...There are now no difficulties with the Ukrainians and I hope there will be none.”
A spokesperson for Ukraine's border guards, in a statement posted online, dismissed the notion of an extra deployment. “From the outset the Belarusians created this threat for themselves and then lifted the very same threat,” it said.
Russia had said the Belarusian statements and deployment were “cause for concern”. Lukashenko allowed Russia to use Belarusian territory to launch the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but has made plain he has no intention of committing troops to the conflict.
Russian blogger on the operation at the Ukrainian border:
With the attack of Ukraine on Belarus, everything turned out as we predicted. Lukashenko was offended by Putin. As we wrote in early July, there was no attack of Ukraine on Belarus. This was quite officially stated by Alexander Lukashenko. We predicted such an outcome from the very beginning.
At the same time, Belarusian sources claim that Lukashenko was offended by Vladimir Putin. “Alexander Grigoryevich says that signals about the attack of Ukraine came from Russia. And it turns out that he was made a fool. And Vladimir Vladimirovich could not help but know about it. It is unpleasant,” explained the interlocutor in the entourage of the President of Belarus. Our sources in the Kremlin called such claims “strange.” “Lukashenko sometimes does ridiculous things. Sometimes he praises the Ukrainians, sometimes he makes some peace proposals without coordinating with Vladimir Vladimirovich. He should be more careful,” noted the high-ranking interlocutor in the Presidential Administration.
Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. Russian sources circulated footage on July 13 and 14 of two security guards armed with anti-drone guns seemingly watching a Ukrainian drone strike the oil depot without attempting to shoot down the drone and criticized the security guards for not defending the depot.[1] Russian sources alleged that Russian authorities have attempted to absolve themselves of responsibility for Ukrainian drone strikes by ordering Russian facilities to hire their own security and questioned why the Russian government has not organized mobile fire groups similar to Ukraine's mobile fire groups that defend against Russian Shahed-136/131 drone strikes.[2] Former Roscosmos (Russian space agency) head and Zaporizhia Oblast occupation senator Dmitry Rogozin responded to milblogger criticism on July 14 and claimed that Rosgvardia - a security agency tasked with protecting Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s regime from internal threats and some critical infrastructure - does not have the necessary manpower to set up defense posts at every critical facility in Russia.[3] Rogozin suggested that Russia should form, train, and equip specialized BARS (Russian Combat Army Reserve) volunteer units to provide technical and armed protection of critical energy and transport infrastructure facilities and called on the Russian government and Russian President Vladimir Putin to consider his proposal. Rogozin supervises several BARS units including the Russian BARS-10 Battalion of the “Tsarskiye Volki” Brigade, and owners of Russian irregular formations have previously attempted to use threats to Russian territory in order to advocate for their forces to move from frontline areas in Ukraine to defend Russia's rear and border areas.[4] Russian milbloggers have routinely complained about the Russian government's inability to address and repel Ukrainian strikes against Russian infrastructure.[5]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2024