Russian military convoy has advanced from Ivankiv to outskirts of Kyiv, satellite images show (17 miles long)

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 4, 2024

Russia has begun negotiations with Algeria, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia to open Russian cultural centers (Russkii dom) abroad, likely aimed at increasing Russian influence in the Middle East and North Africa. Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) Deputy Head Pavel Shevtsov told Kremlin newswire Tass on January 4 that Russia has begun similar negotiations with other unnamed countries and noted that he is confident that the agreements will be completed “quickly enough” due to mutual interest between parties.[32] Russian media previously reported that Russia is also in negotiations to open additional Russkii dom centers in Brazil, South Africa, Angola, and Mali by 2025.[33] Russia currently has over 80 Russkii dom centers concentrated in Europe, Africa, and Central and Southeast Asia aimed at promoting Russian culture, strengthening the influence of the Russian language, supporting “compatriots abroad,” and preserving historical sites abroad with significance to Russia.[34] Moldovan and Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russian officials use Russkii dom centers to promote Russian propaganda and conduct “subversive work” abroad.[35]

fullreport: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 5, 2024

Russian sources are trying to preempt possible issues between Russia and India by alleging that Western countries are purposefully supplying Indian-produced artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The Indian branch of Russian government media outlet Sputnik claimed on January 3 that an Indian Air Force veteran accused Slovenia of purchasing Indian 155mm artillery ammunition under false pretenses and supplying the ammunition to Ukraine to damage the Russian-Indian bilateral relationship.[66] Sputnik India stressed India's neutral position on the war in Ukraine and its close strategic partnership with Russia.[67] Indian outlet Economic Ties reported that Russian officials contacted the Indian government about Indian-made ammunition reaching Ukraine through European intermediaries.[68] ISW has not observed confirmation that any belligerent has used Indian-made artillery ammunition in Ukraine. Russian sources and officials are likely trying to frame the issue as a Western provocation to diffuse possible tensions with India. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on December 27 likely to maintain Russia's critical trade relationship with India.[69]

A Russian milblogger amplified a claim that “terrorists” can easily enter Europe due to the war in Ukraine likely in an attempt to undermine Western support for continued aid to Ukraine and discussions on Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU). The milblogger amplified an article from the German outlet Bild that claimed that Islamic State Khorasan Province terrorists from Tajikistan are easily entering Europe by posing as refugees from Ukraine.[70] The milblogger amplified a map showing the alleged route the terrorists take to reach Germany, which indicates that the path goes through Russia.[71] ISW has observed nothing to verify any of Bild’s claims. The milblogger likely amplified the claim in an attempt to link European fears of terrorist attacks and debates about migration with continued support for Ukraine.

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 6, 2024

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to incentivize service with the Russian military by advertising support for housing. The Russian MoD announced on January 6 that it resolved issues of poor housing conditions for 56,000 military families and reimbursed over 100,000 individuals for rent.[38] The MoD stated that it provided military personnel over 73 billion rubles (roughly $802 million) of housing subsidies. The MoD stated that it provided over 5,000 military personnel with housing assistance in 2023, including providing 4,100 with subsidies and roughly 900 with permanent housing, and that over 18,000 military personnel enrolled in the Russian savings-mortgage system (NIS) housing support program.

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2024

This picture was not taken 100 years ago:

https://www.rferl.org/a/siberian-woman-photographing-forgotten-heartland/32452179.html

Following eggs, chicken began to disappear from stores. Who is guilty?

Paradoxical things are happening in the food market. Initially, prices for eggs in stores went up, essentially there was a threat of an artificial shortage, but the Ministry of Agriculture team led by Dmitry Patrushev [son of Nikolai] made considerable efforts to stabilize the situation. Negotiations were held with a number of countries and in the near future from 50 to 100 million eggs will enter the country. Including artificial ones, which, as the Ministry of Agriculture assures , do not pose a threat to the life and health of citizens. The egg shortage will be resolved soon. Patrushev Jr. held extremely productive negotiations with China.

However, against this background, another problem arose - chicken began to disappear from supermarket shelves. The reason for the development of panic was photographs from Chelyabinsk , where in many supermarkets the shelves were really empty.

The Ministry of Agriculture assures that there are no problems with supplies. Off the record, our interlocutors at the ministry say that for the second month now there has been an attempt to discredit Dmitry Patrushev . Representatives of some Kremlin towers are seriously afraid of his further political growth and are trying to create a problematic image for him. In general, they want to label an effective minister as a loser. They say they are even preparing an Internet campaign “Patrushev, where are the eggs?” At the same time, the Ministry of Agriculture team is indeed actively working to prevent shortages of both eggs and chicken meat.

“In November-December, part of the livestock died due to bird flu. We have intensified checks to protect our citizens. There will be no problems with the supply of chicken,” the ministry assured.

That is, in essence, the shortage of certain products was created artificially and is an attempt to bring down Dmitry Patrushev within the framework of internal political competition. Patrushev himself understands everything and prefers not to react to provocations, but to deal with state affairs.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3399

If this is true, the target is not
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Patrushev but his father

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikolai_Patrushev

On December 22, it became known that Sergei Baburin’s party “Russian All-People’s Union” nominated the Mufti of Moscow Anar Ramazanov as its candidate in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation.

First of all, a curious and seemingly paradoxical fact should be noted: Anar Ramazanov was nominated by Sergei Baburin, whose party positioned itself as supposedly national-conservative. Baburin once took part in the “Russian Marches” and spoke out against migration, but this was once “in another life.” Since then, not a trace has remained of conservatism and nationalism in [his party].

Now it has come to the point that Baburin decided to nominate a mufti as a presidential candidate, who could potentially gain a lot of votes due to the Islamic factor. After all, it is obvious that his main voters will be Muslim migrants.

Ramazanov is also nominated with the support of State Duma deputy Biysultan Khamzaev, the author of the extremely harmful federal law “On the Russian People,” which, according to the deputy, should “unite all national groups” on Russian territory. Why harmful? But because in fact, with this law, Khamazaev wants to declare all Russians Russians, extremely blurring this concept and depriving the Russian people of their national identity.

This means that those same migrants from Central Asia who received citizenship and barely speak Russian will also be considered “Russian”. And Azerbaijanis who beat Russians on camera because they are Russians, for the sake of likes on social networks, will also be considered Russians if they have Russian citizenship. And the Chechen who came one autumn day to the village of Esto-Sadok in the Krasnodar Territory and insulted Russians and Slavs on a national basis, he will also be Russian. That is, there is an attempt to erase the difference between the concept of the Russian nation (which includes all the indigenous peoples of Russia, all citizens of the country) and the concept of the Russian people, who have Slavic roots.

Further - more In an interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda , Khamzaev even stated that he is a Kumyk by nationality, born in Dagestan, but at the same time considers himself Russian because he knows the Russian language.

The nomination of Anar Ramazanov as a Muslim candidate is another milestone in the process of Islamization of Russia, which the author already wrote about in the material “ Islamization of Russia: Sharia “morality patrols” are just around the corner .” This process is happening gradually, but, unfortunately, so far steadily. Every year the number of Muslim migrants from Central Asia is growing, and at the same time the role of diasporas and Islamic organizations is growing.

At the same time, if the role of Islamic organizations is constantly increasing, then the role of Russian organizations themselves is virtually reduced to zero. Russian nationalism was almost completely destroyed, and instead of “Russian Marches,” “Muslim Marches” are taking place in Moscow, which the security forces do not particularly interfere with. Indeed, these are not terrible nationalists, but respected people.

The calls of some politicians and deputies that “migrants must comply with our laws” do not work, because, firstly, law enforcement officers are often quite lenient with migrants and “new citizens”, secondly, these same migrants are becoming more and more numerous, and therefore, they are increasingly confident in their abilities, and thirdly, migrants are much better at self-organizing, [such as in the Moscow Gardener incident.]

With this approach, one should not be surprised at the growing influence of Islamic organizations, which see that they can put pressure on the authorities, and put pressure on them successfully. So, soon migrants will be listing what they are owed - where to build mosques, where are the halal stores, where are they allowed to wear what clothes, is it possible to celebrate the New Year (in some schools they are already canceling New Year's trees due to the claims of migrants), etc.

If such trends continue, then the moment when Islamists begin to occupy the highest positions in the state is not as far away as it seems.

https://topwar.ru/233333-diaspory-vydvigajut-kandidata-v-prezidenty-ot-musulman.html

Islamization of Russia: Sharia “morality patrols” are just around the corner

According to official statistics, at the beginning of 2023, about 20 million Muslims live in Russia, which is about 15% of the population. In some regions, for example, Dagestan, Ingushetia and Chechnya, more than 95% of the inhabitants profess Islam.

According to census data, the total number of representatives of traditionally Islamic peoples was: in 1959 - 7 million people (6% of the Russian population), in 1970 - 9 million (7%), in 1989 - 12 million (8%), in 2002 - 15 million (10%), in 2022 – 20 million people (15%). If the trend continues, then in 2050 Russia will have, say, 110 million inhabitants, and of these, 30 million ethnic Muslims (27%).

However, the growth trend of the Muslim population is greatly underestimated. After all, Russia is being overwhelmed by massive migration, legal and illegal, from traditionally Muslim countries, and it cannot be counted. According to minimal estimates, there are between a million and two illegal migrants in Moscow alone.

Researchers note that if the process of Islamization continues at this pace, then, given that the replacement of the natural population due to the flow of migrants, among whom the overwhelming majority are mainly preaching Islam, reaches 45%, then we can get an 80% or more Islamized Russia already by 2050.

And how many actual Russians will remain in Russia by that time, taking into account the fact that the share of the Slavic population (as well as its total number) in Russia is constantly decreasing?

https://topwar.ru/229434-islamizacija-rossii-shariatskie-patruli-nravov-ne-za-gorami.html

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 7, 2024

Two Russian government officials defended migrants’ continued presence in Russia amid ongoing migrant crackdowns, generating heavy milblogger criticism and indicating that the Russian government likely still lacks a unified policy toward migrants in Russia. Russian Presidential Commissioner for the Protection of Entrepreneurs’ Rights Boris Titov stated on January 7 that Russian fears that migrants are taking Russian jobs are “completely unfounded” and claimed that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) statistics show that Russian citizens commit many more crimes than migrants.[17] Russian outlet Kommersant reported that foreign citizens committed two percent of the total number of crimes in Russia from January to November 2023 citing MVD statistics.[18] Russian milbloggers heavily criticized Titov’s statements, called him out of touch with ordinary Russian life, and accused him of wanting to replace the ethnic Russian population of Russia with migrants.[19] Another milblogger claimed that unspecified ”specific diasporas” control entire sectors of the Russian economy and claimed that many migrants who receive Russian citizenship commit crimes and therefore, are not reflected in the low statistic of crimes committed by foreigners in Russia.[20] Russian milbloggers also attacked the Nizhny Tagil (Sverdlovsk Oblast) Police Department Deputy Head Colonel Taras Bulgakov for claiming that people “made a big deal out of nothing” regarding a December 29 incident wherein two migrant teenagers beat a presumably ethnically Russian child in Nizhny Tagil.[21] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian authorities should send Bulgakov to fight in Ukraine and claimed that migrants pose a counterintelligence threat since Russia‘s largest tank production factory, Uralvagonzavod, is in Nizhny Tagil.[22]

Titov’s statement attempting to dispel fears of migrants’ involvement in the Russian economy is likely part of an effort to build Russian public support for continued reliance on migrant labor to offset domestic labor shortages induced by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia reportedly faced a domestic labor shortage of about 4.8 million people in 2023, likely including both skilled and unskilled labor.[23] ISW continues to assess that the Russian government is pursuing competing and incoherent efforts to coerce migrants into the Russian military, leverage them to offset Russian labor shortages caused by the war, and restrict them from working in Russia, in part, to appease the xenophobic pro-war Russian ultranationalist community. Titov’s statements defending migrants’ contributions to the Russian economy likely reflect the view of the parts of the Russian government that seek to sustain the Russian economy through migrant labor. Russian military and security elements - particularly the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), MVD, Rosgvardia, Investigative Committee, and the Federal Security Service (FSB) — appear to be spearheading efforts to coerce migrants into the Russian military. These Russian government organs have consistently conducted raids on migrant communities to issue military summonses to naturalized migrants, recruited migrants from migrant detention facilities, offered Russian citizenship in exchange for military service, and advertised Russian military contract service in Central Asian languages.[24] The MVD has also submitted laws to the Russian government aimed at restricting migrant labor, likely to coerce them into military service.[25]

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-7-2024

Russian blogger:

The generals are trying to persuade Putin not to demobilize. The President agreed to only one concession.

Three of our sources in the Kremlin claim that over the past week Sergei Shoigu and more than ten other generals from the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff approached Vladimir Putin with a request not to announce partial demobilization. The military failed to convince Vladimir Vladimirovich. He insists on the demobilization of some of those who were mobilized in 2022, “at least 10-25 thousand people.” And he wants the first demobilized to return home no later than the end of February. And the bulk of those who will be released from the army should return in early March.

At the same time, Putin did make one concession to the military. He allowed them to develop the demobilization procedure and the entire set of measures necessary for its implementation not before January 12, as he previously demanded, but before the 20-25th. If the military does everything, demobilization may be officially announced no later than the beginning of February. If the military fails to cope with this task, there will be serious personnel consequences. “Vladimir Vladimirovich expects a lot from the military. Plans for demobilization, plans for the [invasion of Ukraine], forecasts about which cities we will take this year. I think everything will be fine. We are waiting for positive signals on all these issues,” one of our interlocutors in the Kremlin told us

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3406

Those who are demobilized will tell everyone they know about what is happening and try to avoid being mobilized again.

How to solve problems according to
General SVR 8JAN2023

Last week, including the weekend, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev discussed with people from his circle the innovations that the Russian authorities are going to introduce in the near future. Thus, proposals to introduce Deepfake technologies into the speeches of several State Duma deputies were discussed. Patrushev and many representatives of the Russian leadership are bothered by the idiotic statements made to the press by some deputies, but since these people are quite popular and their opinions are a guideline for some part of the population, it is not advisable to completely remove these characters from the air. Experts in artificial intelligence and Deepfake technologies, who are directly related to the Security Council of the Russian Federation, have proposed an original solution to this problem. In the near future, political shows may appear on Russian television, in which digital avatars of State Duma deputies will participate, at least those who act as military experts (these are considered complete and impenetrable idiots). The texts will be written and agreed upon in advance, and allegedly identifying a digital copy from the original on a monitor screen will not be easy. Nikolai Patrushev, after short consultations, gave the order to begin implementing this program, since, according to him, he was tired of asking the rhetorical question: “Do we have no one else besides these idiots?”

Disabling YouTube and several instant messengers is again on the agenda and has also been actively discussed in the last few days. Nikolai Patrushev was informed that in February everything would be ready for a trial shutdown, and if everything went smoothly, then starting from the beginning of March it would be possible to implement the shutdown on a permanent basis. During the consultations, the Secretary of the Security Council was recommended not to disable YouTube until the upcoming presidential elections, and he agreed with this position.

Some results of the first “innovations” were also discussed. As part of the fight against the “demographic catastrophe,” they decided not to persist in the issue of banning abortion, but to take a different, but no less radical, path. Thus, at the end of last year, several hundred thousand counterfeit contraceptives (pills) containing no active substance were produced under the brand names of several of the most popular manufacturers. Since the new year, these contraceptive “pacifiers” have already been sold in many Russian pharmacies. It is believed that using these ineffective drugs, more than ten thousand Russian women may become pregnant in the near future. The current Russian leadership is solving problems by “skimping or skimming.”

https://t.me/generalsvr/2030

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 8, 2024

Russian government and media officials recently have died, possibly under mysterious circumstances. Russian authorities found the editor-in-chief of the online editorial office of the Kuban branch of the Russian State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK), Zoya Konovalova, and her husband dead in Krasnodar Krai on January 6, and the cause of death is reportedly poisoning.[37] Many Russian milbloggers and war correspondents are associated with VGTRK.[38] Vladimir Egorov, the deputy chairman of the Tobolsk City Duma and member of the United Russia party, died on December 27, 2023, after falling from a third-story window in his home.[39] A Russian source claimed that the most likely cause of death was a heart problem.[40] Russian news outlet RBK stated that Egorov was sentenced to correctional labor in 2016 for not collecting rent from businessmen after leasing municipal land, but the charges were dropped due to the statute of limitations.[41]

full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-8-2024

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