Russia has begun negotiations with Algeria, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia to open Russian cultural centers (Russkii dom) abroad, likely aimed at increasing Russian influence in the Middle East and North Africa. Russian Federal Agency for the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Compatriots Living Abroad, and International Humanitarian Cooperation (Rossotrudnichestvo) Deputy Head Pavel Shevtsov told Kremlin newswire Tass on January 4 that Russia has begun similar negotiations with other unnamed countries and noted that he is confident that the agreements will be completed “quickly enough” due to mutual interest between parties.[32] Russian media previously reported that Russia is also in negotiations to open additional Russkii dom centers in Brazil, South Africa, Angola, and Mali by 2025.[33] Russia currently has over 80 Russkii dom centers concentrated in Europe, Africa, and Central and Southeast Asia aimed at promoting Russian culture, strengthening the influence of the Russian language, supporting “compatriots abroad,” and preserving historical sites abroad with significance to Russia.[34] Moldovan and Ukrainian officials have previously warned that Russian officials use Russkii dom centers to promote Russian propaganda and conduct “subversive work” abroad.[35]
fullreport: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2024
Russian sources are trying to preempt possible issues between Russia and India by alleging that Western countries are purposefully supplying Indian-produced artillery ammunition to Ukraine. The Indian branch of Russian government media outlet Sputnik claimed on January 3 that an Indian Air Force veteran accused Slovenia of purchasing Indian 155mm artillery ammunition under false pretenses and supplying the ammunition to Ukraine to damage the Russian-Indian bilateral relationship.[66] Sputnik India stressed India's neutral position on the war in Ukraine and its close strategic partnership with Russia.[67] Indian outlet Economic Ties reported that Russian officials contacted the Indian government about Indian-made ammunition reaching Ukraine through European intermediaries.[68] ISW has not observed confirmation that any belligerent has used Indian-made artillery ammunition in Ukraine. Russian sources and officials are likely trying to frame the issue as a Western provocation to diffuse possible tensions with India. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar on December 27 likely to maintain Russia's critical trade relationship with India.[69]
A Russian milblogger amplified a claim that “terrorists” can easily enter Europe due to the war in Ukraine likely in an attempt to undermine Western support for continued aid to Ukraine and discussions on Ukraine's accession to the European Union (EU). The milblogger amplified an article from the German outlet Bild that claimed that Islamic State Khorasan Province terrorists from Tajikistan are easily entering Europe by posing as refugees from Ukraine.[70] The milblogger amplified a map showing the alleged route the terrorists take to reach Germany, which indicates that the path goes through Russia.[71] ISW has observed nothing to verify any of Bild’s claims. The milblogger likely amplified the claim in an attempt to link European fears of terrorist attacks and debates about migration with continued support for Ukraine.
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2024