[Mariner]

I believe Russia would interdict arms shipments in a NATO country if they could identify them.

But only once there is a new government in Ukraine.

And I don’t believe NATO would respond militarily.

NATO is a paper tiger on the verge of collapse, in spite of the surface political solidarity you now see. When the shooting starts it’ll be every man for himself.

Ask yourself this: what are the odds a POTUS would send an expeditionary army to Romania to free them from a Russian occupation? They’re right across the street from Ukraine, on the Black Sea and quite vulnerable.

The closest real NATO military is Turkey.

I contend the odds are 0% even.

[MercyFlush]

“I believe Russia would interdict arms shipments in a NATO country if they could identify them.”

And then NATO would start interdicting Russians in Russia. If that’s what Putin wants to do then that’s up to him.

[mac_truck]

The closest real NATO military is Turkey.

Imagine how the Turks will react if Ukraine is accepted into the EU?

My guess is they'll leave NATO.