Russia Stumbles in Biggest Test of Its Military Force

msn/wsj ^ | Michael R. Gordon, Max Colchester, Daniel Michaels

[RoosterRedux]

Since the start of the conflict, Russia has fired more than 320 missiles. Its ground forces have advanced from Belarus to within 30 kilometers of Kyiv’s city center. Russian forces have also moved swiftly from their bases in Crimea and carried out a rare amphibious landing from the Sea of Azov.

Now, the Pentagon says there are signs that Russia is resorting to more firepower, including rockets, in its attempt to take Chernihiv, a city 150 kilometers northeast of Kyiv.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general who has studied advanced warfare, says Russia’s failure so far to achieve decisive gains and its potential depletion of precision-munition supplies “probably will force them to use older weapons that are less precise and more deadly.”

“In the next 72 hours I expect greater lethality on the battlefield,” he added.

***snip***

The course of the conflict, analysts say, will now turn on whether Ukraine can hold Kyiv and what kind of guerrilla battle the Ukrainians can maintain in the longer run.

Jack Watling, an expert on land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a British defense think tank, says that his analysis before Russia’s invasion had been that Ukraine’s conventional forces would hold out for 10 days before shifting to more unconventional resistance warfare.

Previous conflicts, Mr. Watling said, have shown that “the Russians always take more military losses than they should.” But a question is how much public support Mr. Putin will have at home, as the war drags on and Russian soldiers die.

Moscow’s hope, he said, had been to avoid this prospect by planning a “shock and awe” demonstration that involved rapid advances and the seizure of a few key objectives in the hope the Zelensky government would quickly surrender or flee.

“That failed,” he said.

[Tallguy]

This *may be* what Gulf War 2 would have looked like in the Media if we hadn’t had embedded journalists with the troops. How much easier would it have been to accept some or all of what Baghdad Bob was selling if it hadn’t been for those reports?

[marktwain]

I also heard the "amphibious landing" was a simple debarkation of troops from ships. There was no opposition where they landed, which was a known port.

Which is true? No pictures or video of an "amphibious landing".

[FatherofFive]

“probably will force them to use older weapons that are less precise and more deadly.”

Communists and Islamists do not hold life to be precious.

Churchill said it well:

No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science - the science against which it had vainly struggled - the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome.”A quote from an 1899 book by Winston Churchill, "The River War", in which he describes Muslims he apparently observed during Kitchener's campaign in the Sudan

[RoosterRedux]

Things don't look good for Pootie Poot. He's between a rock and a hard place.

As a former KGB officer, it looks bad that he misread the tea leaves on how quickly Zelensky and his government would cut and run, that he misread the resolve of the Ukrainian people, that he misread the strength of his own military, that he obviously developed a poor plan of attack (and/or poorly implemented said plan)...

Bummer.

[HighSierra5]

Pukin has succeeded in taking the eye off Byedones failures here in the US. Maybe that’s part of the plan.

[CIB-173RDABN]

I think every nation in the world should look at the Swiss and provide every male over 18 with training and weapons they keep at home.

https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-Swiss-people-get-to-keep-guns-at-their-homes-provided-by-the-military

Training is certainly important but it is just as important to have the weapons and ammunition available when needed not after the conflict starts and it needs to be distributed.

Not everyone is suitable for combat but when motivated by the prospects death most come around to wanting to fight to save their family and themselves.

[ironman]

“Moscow’s hope, he said, had been to avoid this prospect by planning a “shock and awe” demonstration that involved rapid advances and the seizure of a few key objectives in the hope the Zelensky government would quickly surrender or flee.”

I see this and similar “reported” all over the place with no supporting evidence.

[Cecily]

He also misread how much support Ukraine would get from the rest of the world.

[Travis McGee]

You might not agree with an adversary (Russia in this case), but to dismiss and ignore their legitimate security concerns is dangerously stupid.

It is always wise to look at a war through the other side's perspective, if only to improve the effectiveness of your own side.

For Russia, Ukraine joining NATO is a redline worth going to war over. We ignore this at our own peril.

Russia is not Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya or Serbia. They have the most powerful nuclear force on the planet.

Miscalculation over Ukraine can escalate to full-blown war and a nuclear exchange.

In 1962, we already had medium-range nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in Turkey. When the USSR obtained a client state (Cuba) 100 miles from Florida, they thought it would be fair turn to also have MRBMs in range of America. (ICBMs were not yet available.) The result was that America was outraged, rightly, and we very nearly had a nuclear exchange.

It was not "JFK backed down Khrushchev!" as we portrayed it. Diplomats and generals on both sides later wrote that we came within a hair-breadth of a full nuclear exchange. In the deal that was worked out, we also (quietly) removed our MRBMs from Turkey. Part of the agreement was that the USSR would not crow about how they forced us to move our missiles out of Turkey.

Russia looks at Ukraine, and they see it as the same invasion route of the Nazis in 1942 which came very close to cutting off their Caspian oil. The idea of NATO forces positioned across Ukraine, directly on the Russian border, armed with tanks and MRBMs, is a redline they have repeatedly said they could not tolerate.

We teased Ukraine into believing that if they were compliant with American, EU and NATO desires, they'd eventually join the EU and NATO. Instead, Russia was provoked into removing this possibility by an invasion.

[RoosterRedux]

Yep. And he misread how much support he was going to get from rank and file Russians.

[mad_as_he$$]

Some conclusions I’ve come to about the Russia/Ukraine conflict that I believe to be true based upon doing a lot of homework and trying to sort out the propaganda from all sides.
I do not believe the Russians have obtained air superiority in enough area to be truly effective. Not surprising to me based upon my previous impressions of the Russian air force.

I do agree with the assessment that the Russians are trying not to inflict as many civilian casualties as they could. That said I am not impressed with their lack of logistical support for their operations. I was wondering the other day if the generals just phoned it in, didn’t think Putin was would actually invade so they didn’t really gear up for a heavy logistical situation or if they’re just not capable of providing logistics to their troops. I suspect it’s some of all those factors.

The Ukrainian people seem to be taking up arms and fighting for their corner of their country. If the Russians get serious I still believe that this will be a baby seal clubbing event with the Ukrainians on the receiving end. That said it would be a major PR disaster for the Russians if they were to employ their forces to the maximum effect on urban areas.

The US had learned some lessons early on in the Iraq war. I’ve talked to many vets that fought in Ramadi and Fallujah. Urban combat is brutal, up close and personal and the most resource consuming combat they ever engaged in.

[RoosterRedux]

I agree with your assessment.

This looks like a lose-lose for Putin at this point.

[rbg81]

I think it is a little early to declare winners/losers at this point. One of Putin’s big advantages is the enormous need in Europe for Russian supplied energy. The impact of this will likely be felt in the coming weeks/months — not to mention next winter.

I think the “Shock & Awe” is definitely in term of the pressure NATO and the West has been able to apply to Russia. Supposedly, Russia has been preparing for such sanctions for a decade or more. It will also be interesting to see how China plays this whole thing. So far, China’s support of Russia has been less than rock solid. Yet you know they are watching this whole thing very intensely (and learning all they can) because they have designs on Taiwan.

[Lurker]

“I think every nation in the world should look at the Swiss and provide every male over 18 with training and weapons they keep at home.”

For the Swiss mindset on this find a copy of Total Resistance by Swiss Maj. H Von Dach.

L

[Lazamataz]

The biggest side effect from this debacle is that China is rethinking their plans to invade Taiwan this year.

[marktwain]

We are only on what? Day 5 of a major war? or

Is it a Limited Military Action, where Russia gets some concessions/ makes guarantees, and pulls out?

It is way too early to know.

The Russian tactics, so far, appear to be to limit their damage to the infrastructure and the civilian population.

The lights are still on in Ukraine. That is only because the Russian policy makers want them to stay on.

[Celtic Conservative]

It does seem that historically, Russia likes buffer states between themselves and the west.

CC

[Gen.Blather]

I like the “Task and Purpose” videos. It must be annoying th e heck out of Russia that their moment-to-moment military moves are all over the internet via social media.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xKFSK_9e-g4

[buwaya]

That is quite a good show. The stress on logistics is on point.