Wars have unintended consequences. Just think of how Austria-Hungary’s Franz Josef started WWI, which resulted in the end to that empire. With Putin obsessed with Ukraine, Russia will be less able to assist Lukashenko if the people their decide to revolt or call a general strike to cripple that regime.
Don’t forget Kazakhstan. They had to call the Russians to bail them out recently.
Not so much Franz Joseph but Austria’s Chief of the General Staff, Franz Xaver Josef Conrad von Hötzendorf.