Good analysis. Anyone thinking the Stalin days of losing entire divisions in a day were still here is sadly mistaken. We began to see in Afghanistan where even then, as the USSR, there were finite limits on the casualties Russia could take.
Some of the thinking is that the initial units were conscripts, not the crack Soviet version of the SS troops who were reserved for the follow-up and control. Dunno. I have also heard 50k of 150k, not 200k, troops.
REMEMBER, Russia’s population has been shrinking badly, and several commentators suggested in 2015 they had a limited window in which to launch serious military ops before their army was compromised by an insufficient pool of draft-age males.
I think we'll see China and Russia establish birthing centers so they will conscript fertile women to raise offspring for their nations. They know they have a serious problem and they are authoritarian so they will force a solution sooner than later.