Hasn’t the Republican redistricting in Texas made this district perfectly safe for the Democrat, in order to try to keep adjacent districts in Republican hands? That sort of thing seems to be the most which the redistricters dared do this time around.
It’s D+25 now. Absolutely zero chance a Republican can win here, even in a wave.
The consistent swing from 2020 looks to be about 12 points. A huge Red wave, but it would take one of unprecedented proportions to start cresting +25 districts.