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Putin Escalates His Creeping War In Ukraine
Townhall.com ^ | February 23, 2022 | Austin Bay

Posted on 02/23/2022 6:37:16 AM PST by Kaslin

Russian tanks and mechanized infantry have invaded Ukraine's Donbas and occupied the so-called secessionist enclaves of Luhansk and Donetsk.

Russian President Vladimir Putin calls his armored forces "peacekeepers," sent to protect ethnic Russians threatened by Ukrainian genocide.

No one sane believes it. Putin leverages the bloody script Slobodan Milosevic's Serbia used in the 1990s to justify invading Bosnia and Croatia, waging a war in Europe that left some 250,000 dead.

In 2008 Putin used his version of the script. He sent special forces and infantry into Georgia, igniting the Russo-Georgian War. He claimed breakaway enclaves South Ossetia and Abkhaz faced ethnic cleansing.

The Bush administration airlifted a Georgian infantry brigade from Iraq to Tbilisi. The American reaction curbed the Kremlin's aggression and led to a ceasefire. Putin, however, kept soldiers in the enclaves.

In 2014 Putin's script included new lines. Early 2014: Russian agitators orchestrated incidents to "prove" the propaganda that violent "Ukrainian fascists" threatened Russians living in Crimea. February 2014: Putin launched a quick invasion of Crimea, using Russian special operations forces in unmarked green uniforms. Russia was recovering lost territory and protecting Russian ethnics!

March 2014: Putin annexed Crimea. For the first time since WWII, military aggression in Europe by a major European power led to annexation and territorial expansion. Moreover, Russia violated the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, a multilateral diplomatic agreement guaranteeing Ukraine's territorial integrity.

In April 2014 the murderous drama began again. Ethnic Russian agitators in eastern Ukraine demanded political unification with Mother Russia. A suspicious group in Donetsk begged the Kremlin to send "temporary" peacekeeping troops.

And ever since, eastern Ukraine has suffered a slow war of creeping Russian aggression.

This week the war escalated, drastically. On Feb. 21 Putin announced that the two Ukrainian enclaves are independent countries. My bet on his next move: they become Russian territory.

At the strategic level Putin made the war a direct challenge to the NATO alliance. No, Ukraine isn't a NATO nation, but Poland is, and Poland is worried. So are the Baltic states. Putin sees divisions in NATO, and he is exploiting them.

Huge spikes in energy prices -- petro-rubles swelling Putin's military budget -- fueled this week's aggression. High oil prices give the Kremlin money to spend on war.

The single largest error in judgment contributing to the price surge? President Joe Biden's decision to stifle U.S. oil fracking and kill the Keystone pipeline. Biden's "green policies" also undermine U.S. energy independence, and Americans are paying an economic price. We've a bitter example of an incompetent and ignorant White House inflicting major damage to U.S. foreign policy and our own domestic economy.

Now Biden and NATO dither on how to penalize Russia. Germany's Nord Stream 2 pipeline from Russia is on hold. Putin expected that. Attacking Russian finances will hurt, but Russian troops in Ukraine are now a hard fact on the ground. They have advantageous positions with relatively little bloodshed. Adolf Hitler did the same when his forces re-militarized the Rhineland on March 7, 1936.

What's Putin's strategic goal? We've known for quite some time. Putin is assembling the RUBK -- "Rubik" as in the puzzle Rubik's Cube.

I'll quote from a column I wrote in November 2004. At some point a Russian leader would emerge who would try "to return to super-power status..." and restore key elements of the Soviet Union's empire. This leader would attempt "to link the core empire strength: Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan (RUBK)...

"Russia, plus Ukraine, plus Belarus, plus Kazakhstan is a geo-strategic formula for a global power re-born."

One last quote: "In 2004, the Kremlin of President Vladimir Putin still sees the economic benefits of a RUBK federation. He also sees it as a way to bring ethnic Russians back inside the borders of Mother Russia."

Putin denies he seeks to recreate the Soviet Union. He lies.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: russia; ukraine; vladimirputin
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1 posted on 02/23/2022 6:37:16 AM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin
Now Biden and NATO dither

Yep, should have bolstered energy reserves and started a massive energy infrastructure initiative one year ago.

2 posted on 02/23/2022 6:39:36 AM PST by 1Old Pro
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To: Kaslin

Still not worth planting one of my son’s over...
sorry


3 posted on 02/23/2022 6:43:56 AM PST by joe fonebone (And the people said NO! The End)
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To: Kaslin

Even Townhall is falling for this wag the dog, Biden invented war


4 posted on 02/23/2022 6:44:56 AM PST by The MAGA-Deplorian ( 2022 - VOTE THE BUMS OUT —— ALL OF THEM! RE-ELECT NO ONE!!)
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To: joe fonebone

What Trudeau and Biden are doing right now is a much bigger threat to this country than Putin will ever be.


5 posted on 02/23/2022 6:45:06 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Kaslin

A journalist should know that an “enclave” means a portion of a state that shares no border with the rest of that state. You’ll hear about “separatist enclaves” because separatists frequently have strongholds that are isolated from one another. Separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk control geographically united territories that border each other and even Russia.


6 posted on 02/23/2022 6:48:04 AM PST by dangus
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To: The MAGA-Deplorian

The funny thing is All Things Considered dropped Ukraine from their news the second they realized that Putin made Biden look like a castrated chihuahua. Putin did invade Ukraine, but I’m not sure you’re entirely wrong: I think he may only have decided to invade once he realized how pathetically weak Biden was.


7 posted on 02/23/2022 6:50:14 AM PST by dangus
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To: Kaslin

Ukraine is not part of NATO. There is no obligation on the part of NATO or the US to defend them.
If one feels the US should fight authoritarian tyranny to defend freedom and democracy then we should liberate Canada


8 posted on 02/23/2022 6:50:43 AM PST by wny ( )
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To: Kaslin

Think of Luhansk and Donetsk as Quebec and New Brunswick wanting independence from Trudeau and aligning with the US.

The US might send troops there to support them if Trudeau continues his dictatorial abuse of Canadian citizens.

Europe has been splintered for over a century.

Many people were forced to be under one flag when their hearts were with another.

A true leader would negotiate that Luhansk and Donetsk deserve their independence and Ukraine and Russia must stop interfering in their affairs. A true leader would negotiate that no troops from Ukraine or Russia should ever step foot in these new nations.

Then let the UN hold the peace.

That is what I would do.

But Putin out-maneuvered Biden and will keep troops in Luhansk and Donetsk permanently, just as he is doing in Belarus. Further territory will be taken by Russia so they have a land bridge to Crimea.

That is Putin’s goal here and he is achieving it a little at a time. The West, under weak leaders like Obama and Biden, keep giving in to Putin.


9 posted on 02/23/2022 6:52:43 AM PST by Erik Latranyi (We are being played by forces most do not understand)
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To: dangus
Putin invaded Ukraine already in 2014 during the Obama administration...after invading Georgia under Bush-43. The Russians have fostered a separatist enclave in Moldova too but that may date back to before Putin's rise to power.

The question, after Putin takes as much of Ukraine as he thinks he can handle, is who's next? Estonia has a Russian-speaking minority. But they are also a member of NATO. Will Putin hold back for that reason, or think that this is his chance to show that NATO is a paper tiger?

10 posted on 02/23/2022 6:54:03 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Erik Latranyi
Think of Luhansk and Donetsk as Quebec and New Brunswick wanting independence from Trudeau and aligning with the US.

I remember when DeGaulle got in a lot of trouble for saying, "Vive Quebec Libre!"

11 posted on 02/23/2022 6:54:20 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Kaslin
Putin denies he seeks to recreate the Soviet Union. He lies.

Could be. But did NATO mislead if they agreed to not expand into the Baltic states? Just asking, as the available info is contradictory, incomplete, and not being further investigated.

12 posted on 02/23/2022 6:55:01 AM PST by Golden Eagle ( What's in YOUR injection? You really have no way of knowing.)
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To: Erik Latranyi

Biden is never going to support Canadian citizens against Trudeau. He’s probably giving Trudeau tips on how to suppress the opposition.


13 posted on 02/23/2022 6:55:29 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Verginius Rufus

The crackdown in Canada would have never occurred without the Biden Administration’s support, Trudeau was floundering until Joe stepped in.


14 posted on 02/23/2022 6:56:36 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: dfwgator
What Trudeau and Biden are doing right now is a much bigger threat to this country than Putin will ever be.

Tucker's intro last night was right along these lines.

He asked what has Putin ever done to you? Threatened to take you job if you don't take an injection, tried to turn your schoolkids into trannies, etc.

And if there are borders to be worried about they are our own, first. There's probably Russians coming in!!!

15 posted on 02/23/2022 6:58:58 AM PST by Golden Eagle ( What's in YOUR injection? You really have no way of knowing.)
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To: dangus

If you are talking about Austin Bay, he is not a Journalist. He writes Opinion editorials, not News articles as a reporter would.


16 posted on 02/23/2022 6:59:03 AM PST by Kaslin (Joe Biden, aka president Milk Carton)
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To: Kaslin

I believe it is easier to spot a globalist/establishment Republican by their attitude towards Putin.

It is not a 100% accurate litmus test, but pretty close.


17 posted on 02/23/2022 6:59:38 AM PST by SoConPubbie (Mitt and Obama: They're the same poison, just a different potency)
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To: Kaslin

In other words, he’s a propagandist.


18 posted on 02/23/2022 7:00:20 AM PST by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: dfwgator

agreed


19 posted on 02/23/2022 7:01:27 AM PST by joe fonebone (And the people said NO! The End)
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To: dangus
A question for Democrats and Assistant Democrats:

Should self-detemrination be allowed for ______________________?

One can begin with a premise of the American Revolution, and move through peoples across the centuries since seeking self-determination, i.e. self-governance.

Much depends on "who" versus "who rules" from whom self-determination is.

If the current "separatists" want Russian language and culture and thereby to associate with Russia more closely, does this qualify as seeking "self-determination?"

NATO as a multinational seeking expansion certainly seems NOT to qualify as self-determination. A Democrat US administration opining on Ukraine and Russia also do not qualify as self-determination. And yet so many are "determined" to....

20 posted on 02/23/2022 7:01:50 AM PST by Worldtraveler once upon a time
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