One would assume that since Joël Lightbound bucked his leader, he will vote against it. I think there might be two or three other Liberals as well that are on the fence... Erskine-Smith may be one, Powlowski may be one and Robillard is another. However for them to actually vote against the government on what is essentially a non-confidence motion is probably too outrageous to think about it.
One of the Greens is Morrice in Kitchener....not sure about him.
Derek Sloan is the independent you are thinking about... He got ejected from the Conservative caucus when he and O’Toole didn’t see eye to eye anymore. I think he will vote with the Conservatives on this.
Abstentions are worth something, but unless the vast bulk of the NDP takes that way out with a smattering of no votes from the Grits and the NDP, he’s safe. A snap election with no conservative leader and Trudeau likely in fact extremely unpopular would be very interesting.