Posted on 01/16/2022 4:51:58 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A high-end estimate of up to 88,000 deaths and over 1 million hospital admissions could follow the ongoing wave of the COVID-19 pandemic over the next four weeks as the virus moves toward claiming nearly 900,000 lives in the United States alone, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In an ensemble forecast, which combines data from diverse independent team forecasts on the pandemic, published Monday and updated on Wednesday, the CDC stated its low and high estimates on how many COVID-19 related deaths will likely occur from Jan. 10 to Feb. 5.
“This week’s national ensemble predicts that the number of newly reported COVID-19 deaths will likely increase over the next 4 weeks, with 10,400 to 31,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending February 5,” the agency noted.
The CDC report states that the ensemble forecasts have been “among the most reliable forecasts in performance over time" but "do not reliably predict rapid changes in the trends of reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths." Additionally, the forecasts should not be relied on “for making decisions about the possibility or timing of rapid changes in trends.”
The agency notes that recent “national total death forecasts have shown low reliability, with more reported deaths than expected falling outside the forecast prediction intervals.”
“Therefore, national total death forecasts will continue to be collected and analyzed but will not be summarized until sustained improvements in performance are observed,” the CDC stressed.
The outlook for new reported COVID-19 hospital admissions includes forecasts from 9 modeling groups, each of which contributed a forecast for at least one jurisdiction, the CDC said. However, the “models make various assumptions about the levels of social distancing and other interventions, which may not reflect recent changes in behavior.”
For the period Jan. 10 to Feb. 4, the current forecast for COVID-19 hospitalizations is a cumulative total that could be as high as 1,017,725 or as low as 528,509.
Daily new COVID-19 hospitalizations could be as low as 38,534 or as high as 47,964 on Feb. 4 alone. However, the highest daily prediction for hospitalizations is shown for Jan. 30 when the ensemble forecast says there could be as many as 49,276 hospitalizations.
“Reported daily new hospital admissions can vary due to variable staffing and inconsistent reporting patterns within the week. Thus, daily variations in the reported numbers and the forecasts may not fully represent the true number of confirmed COVID-19 hospital admissions in each jurisdiction on a specific day,” the agency said.
The latest data from the CDC also shows that the fast-spreading omicron variant of COVID-19 has been responsible for more than 98% of new infections as of Jan. 8.
A recently published study of nearly 70,000 COVID-19 patients in California found that while the omicron variant now represents the majority of new infections, it is associated with “reduced risk of severe clinical endpoints and shorter durations of hospital stay.”
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky noted on Wednesday that the majority of the people dying from COVID-19 deaths now are still from the delta variant.
“Given the sheer number of cases, we may see deaths from omicron, but I suspect the deaths we’re seeing now are still from delta,” she said.
She also pointed to the recent California study and said the findings are consistent with data from South Africa and the United Kingdom, which could help the U.S. understand what will happen over the next few weeks.
“The risk of hospitalization remains low — especially among people who are up to date on their Covid vaccines,” she said. “However, the staggering rise in cases, over 1 million new cases each day, has led to a high number of total hospitalizations.”
In a briefing on Thursday, President Joe Biden said his administration was securing 500 million additional at-home rapid COVID-19 tests to meet demand around the country and would double the number of tests the U.S. plans to send to the public free of charge.
Lines for free testing for COVID-19 have stretched for blocks in some cities, and pharmacies have been struggling to keep up with the demand for rapid tests, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Some families are still reportedly spending hundreds of dollars on testing due to the crisis, while others are forgoing testing altogether.
President Biden urged Americans to either get vaccinated or boosted as the omicron variant surges across the country.
“Both vaccinated and unvaccinated people are testing positive, but what happens after that couldn’t be more different,” he said, noting that unvaccinated people who get COVID-19 are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than those who get vaccinated.
Uh, if you have 100% vax rate, deaths from covid will also be 100% vaccinated, whatever the effectiveness is. But of course that isn’t the case— in no instance are unvaccinated doing better as a group, all other things being equal..
Why would a publication like this repeat this propaganda crap. They are no better than “The Hill”.
A true statistician would have formulated that forecast thusly:
There is an 80% chance that there will be a snowfall of 3 inches - plus/minus six inches."
Regards,
Unvaccinated who get COVID-19 are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized than the vaccinated
Make sure you add the unwashed as the culprit
Nonsense.
We are in the midst of an omnicron outbreak here in the Philippines. Officially 38,000 cases, and 100 official deaths. But when they screened commuters who were not sick, they found ten percent tested positive, so probably there are hundreds of thousands of cases.
But not a lot of people dying.
And since eneryone here has oodles of relatives, friends, compadres, and fellow church members, its not like they could hide the dead6
It’s obvious that the vaccines do not do anything they have said they do. The real question is why they insist on literally everyone take this vax, including toddlers & infants. What is the real reason they want this? It certainly isn’t for health. What does that jab actually do???
Vaxed or not vaxed, we need to unite against this tyranny. Something amiss about this whole thing. I can’t help but think evil is afoot. Genocide? If the frequency thing interacts with the vax as some think, we’ll find out. 5G release will be telling if so.
Pray! Pray for our nation and our people. Pray for the rest of the world because they are undergoing the same tyranny.
“You will live to see man-made horrors beyond your comprehension.” Nicola Tesla
I think this is just a cover for the dead coming from the vaccines. They’ll blame it on covid.
“And there is a reason unvaccinated are dying at a higher rate, all things equal, than their vaccinated peers.”
Bold faced lie. The unvaccinated are not dying at a higher rate. The vaccinated are the ones dying.
Ultimately, it’s the chip. #666
Except that almost everyone in the hospital is vaxxed.
RE: Except that almost everyone in the hospital is vaxxed.
Do you have a reliable internet link that shows this data?
You got a scientific study that backs that up calling me a liar?
“You got a scientific study that backs that up calling me a liar?”
You got a scientific study that says you’re not?
I don’t have a FBI account.
Obviously you don’t.
Don’t call people liars if you can’t back it up.
Just Google it. There are numerous reports.
RE: Just Google it. There are numerous reports.
I googled it with the phrase “almost everyone in the hospital is vaccinated”
I am getting the opposite result from Google’s algorithm. This for example, came out on the top of their list:
TITLE: Yes, most patients hospitalized because of COVID-19 are unvaccinated
And the FEAR PORN just keeps on coming!! It is time that these bastards learn that those of us unvaxed WILL NEVER be vaxed, give it up already!! OMG enough already!! The vax does NOT do what ANY normal vax does, leave us the hell alone!!
Every other article posted on Free Republic reports most hospitalized covid patients are vaxxed.
Maybe you can direct me to one such article, or maybe a keyword or phrase to search FR?
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