He did not say that she would make a good president, at least I didn't hear it. He did not say that Obama was the greatest president of our life, he qualified his statement. All of that stipulated, Joe Rogan is making an observation that is entirely too plausible to be dismissed by mere ad hominem attacks against either him or Frau Obama as is our go- to feel- good reaction here on Free Republic.
When one considers both the geography and the context of presidential elections, Michelle Obama has many advantages. First, she will probably very easily get out a huge black vote in big cities in big states. Thus, the geography of presidential politics in the electoral college combines with the context of presidential elections and Michelle Obama goes into the race with nearly half the countries electoral college ballots sewed up.
More, the media will move heaven and earth, certainly nouns against verbs and propaganda over truth to get her elected and to discredit any Republican, but especially Donald Trump. The Democrats learned one lesson from the Russia hoax, it succeeded in many ways. Expect indictments of Donald Trump if necessary.
Additionally, the Democrats will cheat but there is no reason to believe that there is any institution, not the Supreme Court, any federal or state court, or any state legislature that will police the honesty of the elections. Since election fraud occurs mainly in black precincts in black cities that swing states, expect the fraud to be at the max where the damage is at the worst.
Against this, that is against a context in which 13% of the voting population votes its color and a large minority of whites virtue posture by voting Democrat, especially for an African-American Democrat, so the winning Democrat formula might well be expected to prevail once again. In other words, African-Americans are voting their race but whites are not voting their race.
By the time of the 2024 election conventional wisdom tells us that the Republicans will be in control of at least one and perhaps two houses of Congress so the Democrats will have them to blame for the state of the economy that is likely to be one of excessive inflation or even stagflation. Whatever talking points Democrats use to blame the Republicans, the media will amplify.
It is been pointed out on this thread that Michelle is not a likable woman and I think that is largely true. But the important issue of likability has to relate not to male voters but to female voters, male voters will break on other issues. Hillary Clinton lost her election partly because women despised her. She became the most hated person in America., Harris is floundering in the polls for the same reason, women instinctively find her repulsive or her seductiveness threatening and unfair. Black women, of course, will uniformly support Obama but white women remain an open question. White women with children might well be motivated to vote Republican in defense of their children as we have seen in Virginia and elsewhere.
As to whites not voting their race, that tendency may be changing as we witness the overreach of black lives matter, rioting in the streets, smash and grabs, crime. One can anticipate a growing sense among them that whites must react to black tribalism with white tribalism, if only out of self-defense.
Much will depend on the coherence of the Republicans in Congress after 2022. Mitch McConnell's approach will be similar to his support of the $1.7 trillion bill on infrastructure and his support of extending the debt limit to let the Obama administration off the hook. McConnell's approach is to simply not give the Democrats a target to shoot at, that is, don't shut the government down, for example, and catch blame from the media for being "irresponsible."
House conservatives and Senate conservatives will have to decide whether to present a unified façade to the public or to appeal to their conservative base and especially the Trump wing. They will be advised to side with Trump but the tendency in all politicians, especially senators, is to try to be all things to all people. So the possibility remains of an ineffective Congress on the one hand or a publicly split and embittered party at war with itself on the other.
The legacy of Afghanistan has not yet been probated. Between now and 2024 we are liable to see another fiasco over Taiwan, Ukraine, Iran and even North Korea. How these issues play out is not yet to be known but the fear of war may just lend the party of appeasement a cushion for victory. Those same suburban mothers who defended their children in states like Virginia might well swing against Republicans for the same reason if they see their children under threat from and war if Democrats convince her war, even nuclear war, is more likely under a Republican president.
As against a very weak field of potential Democrat candidates, Joe Rogan was not off the Mark. Michelle is their best option as of now.
These are questions to ponder, a pastime more productive than simply backhanding Joe Rogan or bitch slapping Michelle Obama.
