Posted on 12/21/2021 4:11:48 AM PST by tlozo
The abject failure of Russian policy toward Ukraine over the past seven years suggests Vladimir Putin has a flawed understanding of the country.
At dinner at the American ambassador’s residence in Moscow some years ago, I asked a former senior foreign policy official if anyone in the Kremlin understood Ukraine. He replied that someone there understood Ukraine very well. He then added “but nobody listens to him.”
The abject failure of Russian policy toward Ukraine over the past seven years suggests the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin have a flawed understanding of the country.
On Dec. 17, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “Have we [Russia] lost Ukraine as a partner, ally and so on? At this point, yes, completely.”
The Russian leadership presumably did not intend this. Thus, the question of whether the Kremlin and Putin understand Ukraine. Many signs suggest that they do not.
Putin’s last visit to Kiev occurred in 2013, when he traveled to mark the 1025th anniversary of Kievan Rus’s acceptance of Christianity. In a speech Putin said, “We are all spiritual heirs of what happened here 1025 years ago. And in this sense we [Ukrainians and Russians] are, without a doubt, one people.”
What an utterly tone-deaf statement to make in Ukraine. Millions of ethnic Ukrainians heard it as a denial of their culture, history and language. Putin has since often repeated that point.
Russia’s use of military force to seize Crimea following the Maidan Revolution could hardly be expected to win over Ukrainian sympathies. Nor would sparking and sustaining a conflict in Donbas that has now claimed more than 13,000 lives.
Shortly after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2014, Putin and other Russians started speaking of “Novorossiya” — the idea that much of eastern and southern Ukraine would rise in revolt against Kiev. The allure of Novorossiya held sway in Moscow long after it became clear that there was little enthusiasm among Ukrainians for breaking away. Volodymyr Zelenskiy won the Ukrainian presidency in 2019. He came to office a political novice who comfortably spoke Russian and promised a different approach from that of his predecessor, whom Moscow despised. Zelensky endorsed the Minsk agreements as the basis for resolving the Donbas conflict and spoke approvingly of the “Steinmeier formula” for moving forward—politically risky steps for the new president given growing frustration and anger in Ukraine about the failure of the Minsk agreements to deliver peace in Donbas.
What did that get Zelensky? Putin agreed to a meeting in December 2019 with the Ukrainian leader, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. The meeting produced agreement on a prisoner exchange, a full ceasefire in Donbass and a follow-up meeting in spring 2020. Only the prisoner exchange occurred.
Rather than seek compromise, the Kremlin leaders seemed to calculate that they could force the newcomer to make humiliating concessions.
Moscow increasingly took the position that it was not a party to the conflict — despite a Russian signature to the Minsk II agreement — and sought to force Kiev to deal directly with the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.” The Kremlin now swats away any request by Zelensky to meet Putin.
The unsurprising result: Zelenskiy’s attitude toward Moscow has hardened. While he brought to office an ambivalent view of the Ukraine-NATO relationship, he now publicly calls for an early membership path for Ukraine.
Kremlin policy has driven Ukraine away. More than anything else, it has persuaded the Ukrainian government and an increasingly large segment of the Ukrainian population that they can find security and stability only if their country is anchored in institutions such as the European Union and NATO.
Russia understands the Ukraine better than anyone. This is an ongoing cycle that has been happening for hundreds of years. The Ukrainians get uppity and feeling their oats, the Russians slap the Ukrainians back to the reality of sphere of influence, power politics.
Maybe we should have stayed out of Ukraine’s affairs in the first place.
“ Maybe we should have stayed out of Ukraine’s affairs in the first place.”
And what?!? Have Hunter actually work for a living?
So much moola for the elites to make, so few conflicts and so little time to ferment them.
Putin's invasion created a modern Ukrainian identity. A new generation of Ukrainians has been raised knowing Russia only as an hostile invading neighbor perpetuating an on going war with Ukraine.
"Instead of provoking the collapse of Ukrainian statehood, Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea and eastern Ukraine succeeded in galvanizing Ukrainian national identity in ways that few had previously imagined possible. Seven years on, a clear majority of Ukrainians now see Russia as the aggressor state in a war that has come to define the nation’s ongoing struggle for true independence."
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-war-drives-ukraine-towards-true-independence/
Yes, the uniparty elites are the ones destroying the US reputation globally.
I went to college with a Ukrainian who left the country as a baby. He, his entire family, and all their Ukrainian friends despised Russia with a white hot hatred.
“I went to college with a Ukrainian who left the country as a baby. He, his entire family, and all their Ukrainian friends despised Russia with a white hot hatred.”
Pretty much everyone hates everyone else who speaks a different language out there. Nothing new...but should world wars be fought over it?
Look at the history of the area. These upheavals are nothing new. What could make this almost unique is getting Central Europeans involved. The other time that happened was during a world war. That history would repeat itself if NATO actually gets involved today.
I was in Lviv a few years ago. To say the ethnic Ukrainians hate the Russian invaders would be an understatement. They would eat them if they could. Putin may be able to roll over some Ukrainian units with his Kazak and Uzbek mercenaries, but whether he can hold that territory is another question.
Apparently to most of us on our FreeRepublic, nothing is worth losing our precious skins over.
I used to believe that conservatives were the self-sacrificing heroes/combat veterans - but now we know better, don't we? Enjoy your comfort - things are just going to happen without us.
And what else is new. This has been going on for hundreds of years. What do you suggest, send in the 82nd? Not our business. We have enough on our plate dealing with the collapse of representative government in Washington D.C.
“Apparently to most of us on our FreeRepublic, nothing is worth losing our precious skins over.”
Speak for yourself. If it were up to me, I’d double our troops in South Korea (at least), same for Japan.
I also supported Iraq War 2 and getting rid of Saddam - and not because he had nasty weapons, but simply because he BLOCKED our inspections of them.
But no, like most combat veterans, I don’t support USELESS wars, like trying to turn Iraq or Afghanistan into Jeffersonian Democracies or whatever Cheney and the other other Deep State idiots thought possible.
I also don’t see the benefit of fighting a war that we are bound to lose, such as in The Ukraine. If we REALLY want to fight those wars, we need to start by tripling the size of our military (including hardware and nukes_) - otherwise we need to SHUT UP and take our place in the new world, because we going to put there regardless and I’d rather get to the same point without having this country blown off the map first.
But I do realize that many here are convinced we’re INVINCIBLE, because we are America. Like FDR, I’m not convinced of that either.
We have very serious problems with the junta here, but that doesn't mean giving our enemies abroad a hotfoot when it's easy to do so isn't also desirable.
Again, not our problem. You’re a braver or more foolish man than me if you’re comfortable with the traitors and dipsh!ts running things in DC blundering around in this tinder box.
Even when Hitler attacked Poland with the help of the Russians in 1941 - and our erstwhile allies considered that Causus belli, we sat things out.
When war came to us, finally, and we had no choice but to fight - it had blown up to something monstrous and we had to fight the Axis on two fronts and lose hundreds of thousands of our best young men and lose any vestige of civilization to finish things.
Haven't we learned anything? You fight the smaller fights to keep them from becoming much larger fights.
What do you think Korea and Vietnam and the Cuban Blockade and the Berlin confrontation were for?
Fighting Russia is NOT a small war. Have you learned ANYTHING with your deep study of history?
I am perfectly sure that Russia understands Ukraine much better than everyone else, including Mr. Pifer.
We should all agree that Stalin's annexation of the Austro-Polish Ukraine should be reversed.
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