I have no problem with the notion of “excess deaths” calculation per se, excepting how the data was defined and collected. But it cannot be done comparatively across whole nations or globally. I do note that your source is the CDC itself, passed through UPenn to Statista, so the calculations are the CDC’s with you as reporter for them. Ergo, as you attack my bias, your bias is for the CDC and their interpretation of the data.
One notes in the US the media age of death is about 73.8 years currently. Therefore the stats for those older fall into the question about “from” and “with.” Adding in “from” and “with” along with “assumed” — as the WHO recommended in April 2020 — one might question the data taxonomy itself. All those above 73.8 years are essentially dying. I am in that group. When my time comes, as I have seen personally with others, a death not from SARS CoV2 might get coded as a death from SARS CoV 2. Of this, I have personal experience.
I note from Statista/UPenn/CDC website that about 400,000 of the aggregate 800,000 are in the category of “over 73.8 years,” and so death was statistically expected in a COVID year as in a pre-COVID year. As likely with next year as well.
So “weekly deaths by age” falls into that interesting category whereby expected deaths can also be labeled “excess deaths.” But when expected....
https://usafacts.org/data/topics/people-society/health/longevity/average-age-of-death/
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/death-rate
As to presumption and diagnoses, you might want to review the historical creation of new codes and classification to obtain a “COVID” diagnosis. One will read “A death due to COVID-19 may not be attributed to another disease (e.g. cancer) and should be counted independently of preexisting conditions that are suspected of triggering a severe course of COVID-19.” What then follows is advice as to how to arrange the data to emphasize a COVID diagnosis. Much was newly coded, redesigned and redefined that COVID — a syndrome with remarkably flexible symptoms and also no symptoms at all — could be tallied.”
“...to arrange the data to emphasize a COVID diagnosis.”
As the WHO states: “COVID-19 should be recorded on the medical certificate of cause of death for ALL decedents where the disease caused, or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death.”
“...or is assumed to have caused, or contributed to death.”
https://www.who.int/classifications/icd/Guidelines_Cause_of_Death_COVID-19.pdf?ua=1
One notes that your CDC page includes: “Comparing these two sets of estimates — excess deaths with and without COVID-19 — can provide insight about how many excess deaths are identified as due to COVID-19, and how many excess deaths are reported as due to other causes of death. These deaths could represent misclassified COVID-19 deaths, or potentially could be indirectly related to the COVID-19 pandemic (e.g., deaths from other causes occurring in the context of health care shortages or overburdened health care systems).”
“...could represent....”
More to my point in critiquing the CDC’s data handling as well as taxonomy is the sentence before: “As some deaths due to COVID-19 may be assigned to other causes of deaths (for example, if COVID-19 was not diagnosed or not mentioned on the death certificate), tracking all-cause mortality can provide information about whether an excess number of deaths is observed, even when COVID-19 mortality may be under counted. Additionally, deaths from all causes excluding COVID-19 were also estimated.”
“...may be undocumented?” Count as COVID. “...also estimated.”
An analysis done and then enthusiastically “debunked” was done in a seminar connected with Johns Hopkins, in which a statistical analysis showed more or less than influenza, pneumonia and other death data were recoded. Of the analysis which can be found online, one reads “This is all representative of an unproductive orthodoxy that exists around Covid-19. An orthodoxy that has a set view on how to think and how to respond to the virus. When the Great Barrington Declaration was released, a document signed by tens of thousands of medical professionals and hundreds of thousands of concerned citizens calling for the end of lockdowns, it was met with extreme vitriol. Some attacks were welcome scientific scrutiny but many others were the type of pointless slander usually reserved for the peanut gallery of politics.”
https://www.aier.org/article/the-censorship-of-dr-briand/
You write, “The vaxed population is not doing so well in 2021. The vax has faded....”
Immunizations immunize. These “vaccines” are defined as such because the definitions were changed to fit the “event.” Even “pandemic” was redefinded by the WHO. As Oleich of Bayer observed, the inoculations are in fact experimental mRNA gene therapies, which the public would have resisted if marketed as such. A “vaxed” population which becomes taxonomically “unvaxxed” as inoculations wane, and a “vaxed population” which requires continual mRNA therapy every six months or less is not a “vaxed population.” It is a population being repeatedly injected with what are still “experimental” drugs.
You and I will disagree. Your bias is for the CDC and mine is against.
My suppositions still stand, based on “official data.” My suppositions are as they are based of so many wiggle words such as “assumed” used by the WHO and beyond.
If the world's deaths as related to world's population and any nation's deaths related to its population are of any value in being collected, presented and analyzed — as the JHU Coronavirus Resource Center and Worldometer are and do — then some brute facts emerge.
Comparative values for the world (0.0675 %), China (0.0033 %) and the US (0.23 %) are starkly different. These calculated values suggest that — among all the nations of the world — the WORST at handling the “pandemic” has been the United States, its response being led by Fauci, Collins, Walensky, the CDC and the FDA.
You might object to including China, so as a methodological control, one looks at Germany from only last month.
( 101,794 German dead officially from SARS CoV2 / 83,783,942 population of Germany ) / 100 = about 0.12%. Less than half the US toll.
Other nations as methodological control:
Ireland through 23 months — ( 5,609 deaths since beginning of pandemic / 4,937,786 Irish) x 100 = 0.114 %.
Greece since the pandemic — ( 17,168 / 10,423,054 ) x 100 = 0.165 %.
Netherlands with its hysterical lockdown for Christmas: ( 19,344 deaths / 17,134,872 population of the Netherlands ) x 100 = circa 0.113 %.
My use of available data does not rely on the CDC, as do you and the UPenn site whose data you cite. Your methodology seems to take the CDC taxonomy, data collection and analyses at face value.
And yet, the Fauci, Collins and Walensky team along with two federal administrations may be said to be the WORST in the world in handling the “pandemic.”
“The U.S. has the worst coronavirus outbreak in the world: ‘The numbers don't lie,’ Dr. Fauci says.”
If the worst outbreak in the world, and numbers don't lie, one need explain why. Is the US population — vulnerable” or not — different than the people of the world. Yes, some populations are younger, and some more frail and some more robust, etc. Even so, the “worst” in the world refers to the disease and deaths. attributed to it.
But the WHO instructed “to arrange the data to emphasize a COVID diagnosis” and the CDC has been operating on “assume” for some of its data, as above.
And one recalls: “Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, ‘If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death’.”
“Dr. Deborah Birx said ‘there is nothing from the CDC that I can trust’ in a White House coronavirus task force meeting”
https://www.businessinsider.com/deborah-birx-cdc-comments-coronavirus-task-force-meeting-2020-5?op=1
You trust the CDC. I don't. I look to available data and do simple arithmetic.
We differ and therein is the tale. Regards.
As of today there are 6179 hospitals, with 776,546 hospital beds in America reporting to HHS. Of those beds, 605,544 are in use total. Of those in use, 68,208 are beds with Covid patients. Our hospitals nationwide are at 77.98% capacity. Of that percent 8.89% are Covid beds in use nationwide.
As of Aug. 11, HHS data indicated that nationwide, about 76.4% inpatient beds in the U.S. were in use — and 10.5% of those beds were in use for Covid.
Nationally, 75.4% of ICU beds in the U.S. are in use, and 22.2% of those beds are in use for COVID-19.
Source: Inpatient Bed Utilization by State
https://protect-public.hhs.gov/pages/hospital-utilization
Scroll to bed utilization by state and you can look at any state in top right corner drop down, or main page shows Nationwide.
No, actually I don’t worship at the altar of the CDC, but there is no other compiler of Excess Deaths for the US that I know of. I once found a UK site quoting them, but probably from the CDC. More important, the UK numbers look a lot like the US.
The Economist has a model for global: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker
Attribution during one stimulus package did indeed reward hospitals that coded Covid, but that item disappeared from PPP in a later stimulus package. There IS a requirement that all patients get a COVID test now, so docs and nurses know how what protection they need treating that patient.
This requirement likely does elevate case count, but not likely death count because if a patient is dying over a period of time, his test will make clear why.
Probably the most compelling issue in the world of attribution is the elderly person living alone who is aware that the vast majority of people recover. So they start coughing at age 73 and try to tough it out. They die. Alone. Smell brings an ambulance a few weeks later, and presto a death occurs that should have been but is not attributed to Covid, because never tested. This is a hugely common scenario. It is why all community police forces now have a “wellness check” process on the books, from a neighbor call.
Overall, the reason to largely believe attribution is how the death curves align to All causes EDs. In March/April last year, before lockdowns or media splash, the northeast spiked deaths on the attributed graph and it looked just like EDs. Nothing else was happening in March/April. No meteor hit NYC. Just old people were dropping like flies, and Covid declarations aligned.