We moved out of CA two years ago after the company I worked for was sold. My boss gave me a soft landing and let me work remotely from North Idaho during the closing since he knew I wanted out of the Bay Area. I was fortunate to then find a local job in my field and my wife started a very successful business here. I’ll never go back and fortunately won’t have to for work even if I lost my job.
However, most of the people I’ve seen moving here in the past 12-18 months fall into two categories: 1) retirees (many of them on CALPERS...another long term issue) and 2) young professionals that work remotely for California companies. In both cases it has driven the housing market up considerably to levels that cannot be supported by the local economy.
The problem is that employers are discovering that, by letting workers work wherever they want, the companies have created significant tax liabilities (income, wage, disability, etc.) in jurisdictions that they never considered. At some point you are going to see companies retract the remote work thing because they don’t want to pay taxes in several dozen states, especially those where they have no physical presence other than a few employees.
Also, companies that want to downsize are going to use the distance incentive excuse to avoid WARN notices. The way it works is a company decides that it wants to lay off a bunch of people without notice requirements so it tells everyone “Hey, you can continue to work remotely but you have to be within 30 miles of a company location.” People unable to comply are then terminated for cause and not subject to WARN. This exact scenario happened to a large semiconductor company that used to allow remote work pre-Covid. I predict that you will now see it on a massive scale nationwide.
Most people think they’ll get another remote position if that happens, but the remaining remote positions will now have a national pool of applicants...it’s going to be difficult for all but the most in demand to get a new cushy “remote” job. The net result will be a crash of the local housing market as people struggle to find work and are forced to fire sale/leave when they can’t get another remote job.
All of this rambling is really to say that many people who say they will never go back are going to forced to. This “new normal” ain’t going to remain normal for very long. It’s going to financially ruin a lot of people.
There are a lot of people who are never going back because they can't afford to. For decades now, younger folks can't afford to live in the towns they grew up in due to the tax burden. Employers were faced with a dwindling pool of nearby talent.
Now that most industries have caught up with industries that went remote years ago, there's an incentive to hire employees who live in an area with a lower cost of living. It's the employees who still live near the urban areas that are pricing themselves of their own job compared to their peers in areas with a lower cost of living.
Instead of outsourcing to India, they're outsourcing to small-town America. I've dealt with IT support in the Ohio valley, upstate New York, and the Carolinas who all work remotely for the same company.