Posted on 12/07/2021 4:50:20 AM PST by Kaslin
Either the U.S. and NATO provide us with "legal guarantees" that Ukraine will never join NATO or become a base for weapons that can threaten Russia -- or we will go in and guarantee it ourselves.
This is the message Russian President Vladimir Putin is sending, backed by the 100,000 troops Russia has amassed on Ukraine's borders.
At the Kremlin last week, Putin drew his red line:
"The threat on our western borders is ... rising, as we have said multiple times. ... In our dialogue with the United States and its allies, we will insist on developing concrete agreements prohibiting any further eastward expansion of NATO and the placement there of weapons systems in the immediate vicinity of Russian territory."
That comes close to an ultimatum. And NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg backhanded the President of Russia for issuing it:
"It's only Ukraine and 30 NATO allies that decide when Ukraine is ready to join NATO. ... Russia has no veto, Russia has no say, and Russia has no right to establish a sphere of influence trying to control their neighbors."
Yet, great powers have always established spheres of influence. Chinese President Xi Jinping claims virtually the entire South China Sea that is bordered by half a dozen nations. For 200 years, the United States has declared a Monroe Doctrine that puts our hemisphere off-limits to new colonizations.
Moreover, Putin wants to speak to the real decider of the question as to whether Ukraine joins NATO or receives weapons that can threaten Russia. And the decider is not Jens Stoltenberg but resident Joe Biden.
In the missile crisis of 60 years ago, the U.S., with its "quarantine" of Cuba and strategic and tactical superiority in the Caribbean, forced Nikita Khrushchev to pull his intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which could reach Washington, off of Fidel Castro's island.
If it did not do so, Moscow was led to understand, we would use our air and naval supremacy to destroy his missiles and send in the Marines to finish the job.
Accepting a counteroffer for the U.S. withdrawal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey, Khrushchev complied with President John F. Kennedy's demand. Russia's missiles came out. And Kennedy was seen as having won a Cold War victory.
Now it is we who are being told to comply with Russia's demands in Ukraine, or Russia will go in to Ukraine and neutralize the threat itself.
The history?
When the Warsaw Pact collapsed and the USSR came apart three decades ago, Russia withdrew all of its military forces from Central and Eastern Europe. Moscow believed it had an agreed-upon understanding with the Americans.
Under the deal, the two Germanys would be reunited. Russian troops would be removed from East Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. And there would be no NATO expansion into Eastern Europe.
If America made that commitment, it was a promise broken. For, within 20 years, NATO had brought every Warsaw Pact nation into the alliance along with the former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Neocons and Republican hawks such as the late John McCain sought to bring Ukraine and two other ex-Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, into NATO.
Putin, who served in the KGB in the late Soviet era and calls the breakup of the USSR the "greatest geopolitical catastrophe" of the 20th century, is now saying: Enough is enough.
Translation: "Thus far and no further! Ukraine is not going to be a member of NATO or a military ally and partner of the United States, nor a base for weapons that can strike Russia in minutes. For us, that crosses a red line. And if NATO proceeds with arming Ukraine for conflict with Russia, we reserve the right to act first. Finlandize Ukraine, or we will!"
The problem for Biden?
In Ukraine and in Georgia, as we saw in the 2008 war, Russia has the tactical and strategic superiority we had in 1962 in Cuba. Moreover, while Ukraine is vital to Russia, it has never been vital to us.
When President Franklin D. Roosevelt recognized Joseph Stalin's USSR in 1933, Moscow was engaged in the forced collectivization of the farms of Ukraine, which had caused a famine and the deaths of millions. We Americans did nothing to stop it.
During the Cold War, America never insisted on the independence of Ukraine. Though we celebrated when the Baltic states and Ukraine broke free of Moscow, we never regarded their independence as vital interests for which America should be willing to go to war.
A U.S. war with Russia over Ukraine would be a disaster for all three nations. Nor could the U.S. indefinitely guarantee the independence of a country 5,000 miles away that shares not only a lengthy border with Mother Russia but also a history, language, religion, ethnicity and culture.
Forced to choose between accepting Russia's demand that NATO stay out of Ukraine and Russia going in, the U.S. is not going to war.
Biden should tell Putin: The U.S. will not be issuing any NATO war guarantees to fight for Ukraine.
But it was later reported that the 2 events were unrelated.
One reason they tried to tie Trump’s hands is because Trump wanted no part of Ukraine or Russia. They will never give such a guarantee although they should. Western citizens don’t want Ukraine. Only the politicians do.
“Biden should tell Putin: The U.S. will not be issuing any NATO war guarantees to fight for Ukraine.”
I rather he announces to the 30 NATO nations the US is withdrawing from NATO. No more defending these European slackers whose interests are not aligned with American security interests and have been undermining our security interests with Russia and Iran. After Nord Stream 2, Russia and Germany can have each other.
“..A U.S. war with Russia over Ukraine would be a disaster for all three nations...”
and another win for China
Screw them both, if Ukraine wants to join NATO then fine, but NO NATO bases inside their borders and any and all exercises are done to the west of their western border only.
Give them the NATO umbrella, but only sort of. Leave them out of NATO offensive capabilities but have their back if invaded. Russia want's access to the black Sea which they've historically had, we don't threaten that either, we can easily work this out if we want to with any US involvement at all.
NATO expansion was a product of the former Warsaw Pact countries begging to be included in NATO as an insurance policy against future Russian imperialism. It was a matter for them of national survival. We acquiesced. Russia did not like it, but it had no leverage.
Today, Russia has leverage in the form of energy. Germany depends on Russia for 80% of its energy. We did nothing when Russia took over Crimea in 2014. We won’t do anything this time if Russia takes over another portion of Ukraine. The objective is to destroy NATO.
Excellent map and comment! A government concerned about its own citizens would certainly care more about an invasion across its own border than one potentially happening thousands of miles away. The conclusion is obvious.
It might be in our interest if Russia invades. Nobody likes them to begin with. This brings it out into the open. We do nothing. Ukraine’s not worth it.
We should have finished off Russia in the early 90s when we had the chance.
Ha ha ha, Napoleon and Hitler couldn't do it, what makes you think we could have?
If Western Ukraine, the part the was formerly part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland, wish to join NATO and the EU, I believe Putin has expressed he would be ok with that. But the traditional parts of Ukraine should not be a part of it.
They attacked Trump with the Russia hoax because it was a convenient hammer to hit him with. Democrats don’t care about Ukraine, either. They want war on Republicans and not Putinist Russia.
They tried to invade it. We should have just destroyed it.
It was a huge defeat for the United States.
NATO and it’s leader Jen Stoltenberg are like the little brother big brother scenario, he’s out there issuing threats to Russia when most European Countries do little to nothing to back up their threats, they always imply we will send in Big Brother to defend us..and the idiots in Washington are more than happy to comply...
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