Well, the public is pretty ignorant on the Roe issue. Polls have shown that most people (wrongly) think that overturning Roe will make abortion illegal. It won’t. It will simply mean that some red states with large anti-abortion populations will proscribe the practice. In the blue states, nothing will change. If Roe were overturned (and, again, I’m not optimistic that it will be), I don’t think that the pro-Dem, pro-Biden aftershock will materialize in the way that you predict. Once pro-abort people in blue states understand that abortion will be unaffected in their state, I think that the overall reaction will be muted. I don’t think that Alabama or Oklahoma or Louisiana or Mississippi suddenly swing to the Dems if abortions are banned in those states.
If on the very off chance Roe vs Kids is overturned, then I think you’re probably correct. Not so big of a deal beyond the initial drama and the push towards cultural separation speeds up a bit.