You’re right, it seems we are talking about 2 different things.
I agree with you about Russia being paranoid about the border and it certainly is possible but probably unlikely they would invade Europe although personally I don’t give a damn. Biden would do nothing and NATO without us is useless.
I think the very last thing Russia or China wants is a direct confrontation with us. There would be no winners and as I mentioned before no one in the leadership of any of the three has a death wish.
“Biden would do nothing and NATO without us is useless.”
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I think you just stated the bottom line in all of this.
I also think that’s how the Russians and Chinese view it (i.e., Biden and our so-called allies won’t do a thing).