[Fury]

What do assess as the probability that the USSC agrees to hear the case?

[TexasGurl24]

I think they hear this. It’s too important of an issue with national implications, regardless of the outcome at the COA.

[Bruce Campbells Chin]

I think the odds of the Supreme Court taking it if the 5th Circuit's Order vacated by the Panel are over 90%. If the Panel doesn't vacate the Order, and the injunction barring the OSHA mandate stands, then I'd guess around 25%. I think it unlikely that the Court would waste its time on an emergency/expedited appeal just to affirm an Order.

That's all based on my 90+% confidence that there are 5 votes on SCOTUS to strike down the mandate. Though I suppose there is a chance that the conservatives on the Court may be sufficiently agitated by this that they would want to write an Opinion blasting the whole thing so that it has much stronger precedential impact.