Certainly among the most, yes. We're seeing some interesting data coming out of the Northeastern states already. For instance, death certificate information submitted by state health departments to the National Center for Health Statistics and reported out by the CDC shows the following with respect to deaths *involving COVID for the following selection of Northeastern states:
Maine: 10 deaths involving COVID in August 2020; 45 such deaths in August 2021. 13 deaths involving COVID in September 2020; 130 such deaths in September 2021. Complete data for October 2021 has, of course, not yet been compiled, but already there have been 60 deaths involving COVID this month, compared to 10 such deaths in October 2020.
Vermont: 0 deaths involving COVID in August 2020; 17 such deaths in August 2021. 0 deaths involving COVID in September 2020; 43 such deaths in September 2021. 0 deaths involving COVID in October 2020; 10 such deaths so far in October 2021.
New Hampshire: 14 deaths involving COVID in August 2020; 39 such deaths in August 2021. Between 1 and 9 deaths involving COVID in September 2020 (i.e., for privacy purposes, the CDC does not specify a number when there are fewer than 10 deaths -- that is to say, between 1 and 9 -- in a given reporting period); 62 such deaths in September 2021. 42 deaths involving COVID in October 2020; 46 such deaths so far in October 2021.
Connecticut: 30 deaths involving COVID in August 2020; 125 such deaths in August 2021. 43 deaths involving COVID in September 2020; 123 such deaths in September 2021. 45 deaths involving COVID in October 2020; 16 such deaths in October 2021 (as to this, it appears that the information being reported out of Connecticut is lagging a bit more than in other states; the information is typically updated on a daily basis).
Massachusetts: 117 deaths involving COVID in August 2020; 161 such deaths in August 2021. 101 deaths involving COVID in September 2020; 330 such deaths in September 2021. 198 deaths involving COVID in October 2020; 136 such deaths reported so far in October 2021.
In absolute terms, these are, of course, small numbers. For the most part these are small states with relatively small populations. But the trend seems to be distinct. No one in these states had been vaccinated in August, September, or October of 2020, whereas, as of August, September, and October of 2021, a large percentage of these states' populations had been.
Interestingly, each of these states showed decreased numbers of deaths involving COVID in July 2021, compared to July 2020. Things only began to change (and rather radically so) in August 2021. Why that is, I for one can only speculate.
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*The CDC defines "deaths involving COVID" in these terms: " Deaths with confirmed or presumed COVID-19, coded to ICD–10 code U07.1."
It's odd that increased mortality correlates to increased vaccination rates. Why that is, I for one can only speculate.
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