What is the future of delta - will it weaken and die out as more people contract it and/or are vaccinated or will there be a winter surge as occurred last year starting around November?
“ What is the future of delta”?
Most of the modelers predict another (smaller) wave sometime during cold and flu season.
Our (US) current Delta wave is not dropping as sharply as some other Countries did, so we may be looking at more of a moderate plateau level, or more gradual decline continuing to drag on for a couple of more months, more like the UK curve (with a seasonal bump, sometime during the cold & flu season). When there is enough immunity out there for this highly infectious Delta variant (which seems to need 90% or more), case numbers should peter out to a very low level.
Eventually though, most people will end up getting exposed to Delta, and developing strong resistance to it. It will persist in the wild as an endemic disease, pretty much all over the world.
The CEO’s of bothe Pfizer and Moderna predict that in a year, increased vaccination and exposure will bring Delta down to levels that no lo longer require public health policy controls, pretty much worldwide. The USA and other developed Nations, should get there first.
My guess is that any future waves will be less than this last Delta wave was, in the USA. After this Winter’s cold & flu season, there should not be any more running room for Delta in the USA.
There is not much room for any other variant to be significantly more infectious than Delta - Delta is already near the top of the range. The only big wildcard would be variants that evade our existing immune response.