Posted on 10/08/2021 2:59:55 AM PDT by gattaca
China is banning the export of phosphate, a major component of commercial fertilizer, through 2022.
“Fertilizer prices have increased dramatically in recent years, and the news coming from China will more than likely help this trend continue,” said Theresa Sisung, field crops specialist for the Michigan Farm Bureau. “Farmers should talk to their retailers sooner rather than later to discuss their options for purchasing fertilizer for their 2022 crop needs.”
According to John Ezinga, vice president of agronomy at Michigan Agricultural Commodities Inc., the move will adversely affect prices.
“Growers are going to feel it,” Ezinga said. “Look at your ratios on corn: N, P, K. It’s way out of whack right now.”
Prices of urea, DAP, MAP, and potash averaged $572, $702, $776, and $598 per ton last week, all of which are up 59% or more from 2020.
Ezinga said China last cut supply to this degree in 2008, when the country hosted the Olympics. Then, China reacted to a demand-driven market. Today, with the winter Olympics approaching in 2022, he said the market has changed but the problems haven’t.
“We're in a trade war,” Ezinga said. “You've got a supply-restricted market today. Ten to 12 years ago, you had a demand-led market with some supply constraints. Logistics is a mess, but I feel pretty comfortable that we're going to have the supply in the U.S. It's just — at what price?”
Early reports indicate China is restricting fertilizer exports to assure domestic supplies and take advantage of increased raw material prices.
As far as when the skyrocket fertilizer price trend bucks, Ezinga said there’s no timeline.
“It's going to turn when it turns,” Ezinga added. “And when it turns, it’s going to be ugly because there's going to be a bunch of people who own a bunch of high-priced product, and then the supply constraints will get lifted, and everybody's going to pay in excess. I think these prices remain out of whack through spring.”
Looks like they’re getting plenty from elsewhere...
If that will be enough, who the heck knows.
Still, it’s a world wide market not unlike oil.
I got the gist of that. But you really need to proofread before you hit “post”.
CC
And check this out. Our beef is feeding the ChiComs...
You only get 4.8 bales per acre? They must be huge bales? Honest question since I helped my uncle farm in eastern Montana when I was a kid:
Phosphorous is an element without which Earth-based life can’t exist, and it is surprisingly rare. It can’t really be ‘manufactured” and there is no substitute for it. Supplies are not infinite.
There is a theory that the amount of surface phosphates available at any geologic time determines how much biomass (=life) Earth can support. This might explain why the Earth was apparently much more “lush” in the past than it is today, as evidenced by fossils.
Canada has plenty.
Farmers Face Fertilizer Price Squeeze
Pres. Trump, you need to talk about this crap.
But at what price?
Good alfalfa and red clover. A bit rich for horse hay.
Canadian Fertilizer Emissions Proposal Will Lower Farmer Income
This is a co-ordinated war on free people all over the globe.
Those are large square or round bales of 2,000 pounds each.
Yes they are, 5.5x6 and weigh about 1800 lbs. People show up to be loaded and realize they cannot haul as many as they usually do. But that doesn’t stop them from leaving with overloads or being jump started with push of tractor.
4.8 is a good year in South Texas. Extraordinary for me. Usually run about 3.5 to 4/acre
I am rolling up Jiggs, improved Buffle and Klein
Canadian oats (the only good ones anymore) are going to be pricey.
Is it possible to oversees alfalfa in an existing pasture of fescue? I have dairy goats and the cost of alfalfa is killing me.
*overseed
I have said that same thing for awhile. We could easily starve out China. That’s why I’m thinking there will be no war for Taiwan.
Not only are there problems with phosphate, the world supply of potash is also questionable.
Just noticed that in a investment forum Not good.
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