48K out of how many Medicare patients vaccinated?
Age range, mean, median, mode?
How many in LTCF?
Fortunately, they gave us separate data for “over 81”, giving us a ballpark to work with. Medicare enrollment is 95% in the “elderly”, so it’s pretty safe to say that it’s above that at “over 80”. The over 80 population is about 13.2M, with slightly over half of those over 85. So it’s pretty safe to use actuarial data for 85 to get a ballpark number. We can also assume about 90% vaccination in this group.
According to actuarial tables the probability of an 85 year old dying within 1 year is 9.5% for men and 7.3% for women. I’ll split that and use 8.4%. Divide by 26 to get to 14 days and you get 0.00323, or a 0.323% chance of dying within 2 weeks of any event, like drinking a glass of water.
Now, with a population of 13.2M, and 90% vaccinated and 95% enrolled in Medicare, you get a group of 10.6M. This group includes 80 year olds, and the actuarial table says about 500,000 won’t make it to 81, so lets trim it down to 10M, a nice round number representing vaccinated, Medicare enrolled people 81 or older.
10M X 0.00323 = 32,300. That is thousands more expected deaths within this group than the 28,065 claimed by the “whistle blower”, but pretty close. Obviously, this is a simple ballpark number, but clearly the number of deaths in this group is not higher than expected. Just like the VAERS deaths, the author is just trying to twist numbers for an agenda.
Don’t spoil the story with facts ‘n stuff.