DOJ will decline to prosecute. Wrist slap and a huge book advance.
As soon as I read “Democratic” I knew nothing would come of it.
Durham is the DOJ in this case. I don't think anyone in the DOJ can override Durham under the Special Counsel law - at least not legally. But I'm no expert.
There could still be lots of shenanigans I would think. I guess there will be DOJ lawyers assigned to make the pre-trial motions, and the legal arguments if it goes to trial. They could deliberately not be very aggressive, etc. If he's found guilty I don't know if Durham would be the one to recommend the sentence to the judge. If not the DOJ would probably request a very light punishment. If it's assigned to a Democrat judge they'd probably mete out the minimum punishment anyway.
If there is a trial, it will probably have an all Democrat jury. I have a strong hunch that the defense's main argument will be nakedly political, i.e. that Durham was appointed by Trump. If it's a Democrat judge they would probably permit such an atrocity.
So...the odds are probably against him spending a day in prison, even if the DOJ doesn't actually drop the charges.