Appears to not even be close. Hundreds of millions of dollars poured in to successfully take the focus off the recall and Newsom himself - and of course a massive turnout push funded by this cash in the Dem strongholds, of which there are far more than GOP in that state, with mailed ballots unrequested with cars going around collecting the ballots in mass quantitites.
The Democrats were also smart this time not to put up their own prominent candidate. Last time around, Cruz Bustamente ran and it ended becoming an afterthought that Gray Davis was awful and should be recalled by a majority including enough Democrats who had a viable candidate to also choose to vote to replace, and then the race was mainly between Schwarzeneggar and Bustamente. Gray Davis should go - now who should replace him was the narrative which shaped the race.
This time, that dynamic did not exist with only token Democrats running. The race was cast as a vote against “right wing extremism” to vote against recall by the entire media as well as the massive campaign spending, and whatever steam it had fizzled out as it was no longer a referendum on Newsom with the main battle being who should be the replacement...it was all “Elder is a right wing nutcase” all the time.
RE: Appears to not even be close.
Stick a knife to California, the state is a lost cause.