What happens if 200K+ servicemen and women say they won’t take the shot...will they kick them all out, court martial them? I doubt it...we can learn something from the British Navy’s great mutiny in 1797, while they were at war with France. Common sailors demanded better treatment and decent food and because they had the numbers the Admiralty gave in.
That's not going to happen. The military is already over 70% vaccinated. A few thousand will get religious exemptions and a small number will be discharged for refusing the vaccine. Most will just get the shots. Military leadership cannot let a bunch of conspiracy nutcases interfere with military readiness, especially when much of the conspiracy propaganda is coming from foreign actors.