I think Putin’s goal is to make Kaliningrad contiguous. If Belarus is in his pocket, he just needs a slice of Poland or Lithuania. Lithuania seems like the smarter choice, since we have troops in Poland, but maybe he likes to keep them guessing.
Any outright invasion of Lithuania will invoke NATO Article 5. The Poles would respond regardless, and with a newly organized territorial militia, any Russians in Poland would get a very “warm” welcome wherever they were.
Add this to the list of things that no one would ever actually attempt, because they are so ****ing retarded.