No. As much as we would like to believe the author, I think his analysis is doubtful; that he underestimates the power and situational adaptability of the CCP. During Mao’s time and following the disasters of the “great leap forward” and the “cultural revolution”, the CCP looked more precarious in holding onto power than it does today. The CCP controlled military will not let the CCP fall, as Tienanmen Square showed. THAT has not changed.
The CCP controlled military will not let the CCP fall, as Tienanmen Square showed.
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Those were uneducated mountain troops specifically chosen by Deng for their lack of knowledge of current events. They were heavily propagandized to believe all the students were terrorists.
So there really isn’t any accurate comparison to the current PLA, especially if Xi is seen to threaten disruption of the lucrative businesses the PLA controls. Perhaps his announced placement of a CCP member at the top of every business seen by the CCP as essential will tip the scale.
In the Mao days individual Chinese were a lot less exposed to the world and the society was horribly traumatized by, social chaos, revolution & WWII. I think individual Chinese now are much less taken in by “socialist” promises. I don’t think the guy who stood in front of the tank was a solitary thinker. That being said I think the Chinese are very nationalistic and would not take kindly to challenges that they view as belittling their culture or their national accomplishments. Xi will play the nationalism card whenever he senses he’s in trouble. It will work for awhile, how long I don’t know.