[ifinnegan]

“How about the 3% of the population committing 53% of the murders...”

3% of the population is about 9.84 million people.

If 9.84 million people commit one murder each and it’s 53% of all murders, that means 17 million murders or so.

That’s a lot of murders.

[null and void]

Give ‘em time and an excuse.

I wonder what the numbers will look like before CWII is officially declared, or after.

Will there be 9.84 million murders, will there be 9.84 million remaining in that 3%?

I shudder at the thought of either outcome or any blend thereof.

[hanamizu]

The statistics refer to the 3% of the population that represents black males between the ages of 14 and say, 50. They seem to be committing more than half of the murders in the U.S.

The vast majority of the 3% do not commit any murders at all. But younger black men do commit more that half of the murders in the U.S.

[rlmorel]

I have given much thought to this and have made some assumptions with both of you may or may not find helpful. I get my statistics from the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting system (LINK) which aggregates crime statistics voluntarily submitted from everywhere around the country. I suggest you use this, so when people accuse you of racism (which will invariably happen) you can tell them where you got the data and how it is calculated.

For the years 2009-2019, here is

• As for the statement about crime perpetrated by black males, I think the more accurate way to state this is that roughly 1% of the population cause 46% of all violent crime. Here is why I would make that statement:
  
  
  • Blacks make up 12% of the overall population, and males are half of that, so that drops the percent of the total population down to 6%, and I don't include women because the vast majority of all violent crime is by black men.
    
    
  • There is a study that states 30% of all black males have a felony conviction, so that roughly reduces it from 6% to 2% of the total population of the USA.
    • Felony convictions of black men include both violent felonies (homicides/assaults, etc.) and non-violent felonies (theft, drug related, etc.) and I would be surprised if felonies for violent crime were 50% of that whole number, so that brings the percentage of black men who are responsible for violent crime in the US to the level where black men engaged in violent crime (a population of 1% of the total United States Population)
      • Keep in mind that there is likely a stratification within that 1% of the US population that is uneven. There may be an individual black man out of that 1% who commits one violent crime that is included in the national statistics, and another black individual man out of that same 1% who may commit multiple violent offenses.
    
    
    
  • Violent crime is described by the FBI Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) system as follows:
    Violent crime includes the offenses of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter, rape (revised definition), robbery, and aggravated assault."
  
  
  
• It is also to keep in mind how these events are counted:
  
  "...This data reflects the hierarchy rule, which requires that only the most serious offense in a case be counted. The descending order of violent crimes are homicide, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault, followed by the property crimes of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Although arson is also a property crime, the hierarchy rule does not apply to it. In cases in which an arson occurs in conjunction with another violent or property crime, both crimes are reported...". This means that if a man robs a woman, beats her to a bloody pulp, rapes her, then shoots her in the head, only the crime of shooting her in the head is counted in these statistics.

So, when you go to the FBI UCR website, Go to the Crime Data Explorer (CDE) section and filter down to violent crime, show race, and click to show percentages instead of total numbers (the total numbers of violent crime, by the way, for this subset of black men in the USA committing violent crime, the overall summary numbers for statistics of all violent crimes by all categories (inclusive of race, sex, etc):

FROM THE UCR Website: "...For 2010 - 2019, there were 3,146,693 violent-crime incidents, and 3,599,117 offenses reported by the by at most 5,962 law enforcement agencies that submitted incident-based (NIBRS) data, and covers 27% of the total population..."

Here is the screen capture from that website with percentages, for violent crime: