Given a particular cohort, within a particular region, one can determine how many people should become infected (the control group). You then compare that to the vaccinated group and see what the differential is. Israel has extensive data on their population. They agreed to make aggregated COVID-19 and Pfizer data public as part of their deal with Pfizer (along with paying more per dose) to jump the line for vaccine doses.
The public data from Israel has been invaluable for seeing how a mass vaccination campaign impacts the pandemic. In this case, the pandemic has cratered. 14 new cases per day on average now and 1 COVID death. In the entire country of over 9 million people. And all their neighbors are seeing COVID cases and deaths either hold steady or rise. In Israel, COVID-19 is over.
“Given a particular cohort, within a particular region, one can determine how many people should become infected”
Determine? Is that what we call a SWAG: a scientific wild-ass guess?
Perhaps such a guess would have some validity if you had enough data: say, 20 years’ worth, but we don’t.
“(the control group).”
That’s a definition of “control group” that I’ve never heard before. I don’t see how a control group could be the number of people you guess “should” become infected.
“You then compare that to the vaccinated group and see what the differential is.”
You compare the number of people that you think “should” become infected with the vaccinated group, and that gives you...what?