Do you believe in peak oil?
Peak oil likely happened already, if you mean peak production on a global basis. Oil largely follows resource law which states if you double the price of a resource you get a ten times increase in reserves. How much of those reserves are recoverable depends on technology price and geopolitics. Original oil in place is estimated at 13 trillion bbls world wide. Humans have burned 2 of that. The average recovery rate has historically been 20% recovered of OOIP. with tertiary recovery some fields approach 60%. Shale oil recovery rates are 6 to 15% at most. 2019 will likely be peak oil production unless something drastic happens in pricing or technology. The world is moving to be less dependant on oil for good reason for get GW as a species we need the oil for other things than running cars on it. We are going to burn up a few hundred million years of sunshine in under 200. Oil is stored sunshine quite literally it takes over a metric ton of biomass falling to the ocean floor then being buried for at least a 100,000 years to make a single gallon of petrol. Simply put humans are depleting it faster than it we can be made. No professional geologist believes abiotic oil theory we all have down extensive biochemical and geochemical analysts that prove without a shadow of a doubt oil comes from salt water diatoms, algae, and fresh water algae with a VERY small amount under special circumstances from peat bogs and up the coalification chain.
By far the largest hydrocarbons reserves in the planet are deep sea methane hydrates.
From our own DOE
“Once assumed to be rare, gas hydrates are now thought to occur in vast volumes and to include 250,000–700,000 trillion cubic feet of methane and the formation thickness can be several hundred meters thick.”
“In 2019, natural gas consumption worldwide amounted to nearly 3.9 trillion cubic meters.”
So thousands of years of it can be recovered safely and economically two huge it’s no one has succeeded yet. Methane can be used for plastics once turned into c2h2 via catalysts, into ammonia or urea for fertilizers and into liquid lng for ships, trains, aircraft where density matters.